20140806-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_51页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - August 6, 2014
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive market update for the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on key stocks, financial forecasts, and market events. It includes updates from Indonesia, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore, with a particular emphasis on Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC) and Sunac China Holdings.
Main Points by Region
Indonesia
- United Tractors (UNTR IJ): Initiated with a BUY rating and a target price of Rp28,000.
- Forecasted net income growth of 22.4% yoy in 2014 and 7.2% yoy in 2015.
China
- Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK):
- Downgraded from BUY to HOLD due to weakening sales momentum and lower-than-expected performance.
- Target price reduced from HK$10.00 to HK$9.30.
- GQ Honda sales declined in July due to intense competition and dealer de-stocking.
- Sales rebound is expected in 2015 with the launch of the electric bus project.
- GAC Toyota is expected to grow sales by 27% yoy in 1H14, driven by entry-level sedans.
- Trumpchi saw 49% yoy sales growth in 1H14, with projected growth of 36% yoy in 2014.
- GAC Fiat Jeep launch delayed to end-2015 or early-2016, and sales assumptions reduced.
- GAC Mitsubishi is expected to break even in 2014 and contribute to profits by 2H15.
- Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK):
- Upgraded to BUY with a target price of HK$7.04.
- July sales increased by 33% yoy, with subscription value up 69% yoy.
- Greentown China issued a profit warning, leading to a 65% decline in attributable profits for 1H14.
- Despite this, Sunac is expected to report flattish results for 1H14 but a strong earnings reversal in 2H14.
- The stock has recovered 56.6% in the last three months and is now considered a must-buy China property stock.
Hong Kong
- HKT Trust (6823 HK):
- BUY rating with a target price of HK$10.90.
- 1H14 net profit up 17.7%, with synergies from the CSL merger expected to materialize in the next 18-24 months.
Malaysia
- Hartalega Holdings (HART MK):
- SELL rating with a target price of RM5.11.
- 1QFY15 saw production growth, but uncertain future performance.
- MMHE MK (Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Holdings):
- HOLD rating with a target price of RM3.50.
- 1H14 earnings lifted by investment tax allowance, but results still below expectations.
- Earnings recovery delayed to 2015.
- Axis REIT (AXRB MK):
- HOLD rating with a target price of RM3.20.
- Still seeking portfolio expansion.
Singapore
- Banking Sector:
- DBS and OCBC outperformed in 2Q14.
- CapitaLand (CAPL SP):
- BUY rating with a target price of S$4.08.
- Holding company discount narrowing provides more upside.
- Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC SP):
- BUY rating with a target price of S$11.14.
- Record quarter in 2Q14.
- Riverstone Holdings (RSTON SP):
- BUY rating with a target price of S$1.14.
- Results within expectations; new factory contribution expected in 4Q14.
Key Indices and Commodities
| Index/Commodity | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 16429.5 | (0.8) | (2.9) | (3.7) | (0.9) |
| S&P 500 | 1920.2 | (1.0) | (2.5) | (3.3) | 3.9 |
| FTSE 100 | 6682.5 | 0.1 | (1.8) | (2.7) | (1.0) |
| AS30 | 5511.5 | (0.4) | (1.2) | (0.0) | 3.0 |
| CSI 300 | 2369.4 | (0.3) | 1.6 | 8.8 | 1.7 |
| FSSTI | 3327.7 | 0.3 | (0.8) | 1.7 | 5.1 |
| HSCEI | 11009.8 | (0.7) | (1.0) | 5.0 | 1.8 |
| HSI | 24648.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| JCI | 5109.1 | (0.2) | 0.5 | 4.1 | 19.5 |
| KLCI | 1876.7 | 0.0 | (0.0) | (0.4) | 0.5 |
| KOSPI | 2066.3 | (0.7) | 0.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Nikkei 225 | 15320.3 | (1.0) | (1.9) | (0.8) | (6.0) |
| SET | 1529.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 17.7 |
| TWSE | 9141.4 | (2.0) | (2.7) | (3.9) | 6.2 |
| BDI | 755 | 0.3 | 1.1 | (15.5) | (66.8) |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2331 | (0.8) | (0.6) | (5.1) | (9.4) |
| Nymex Crude | 98 | 0.2 | (2.7) | (6.2) | (0.8) |
Key Financial Assumptions and Forecasts
| Metric | 2013 | 2014F | 2015F | 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP % yoy | 7.7 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 110 | 110 | 110 | 110 |
| Aluminium (US$/mt) | 1,886 | 1,713 | 1,650 | 1,650 |
| Copper (US$/mt) | 7,349 | 6,866 | 6,850 | 6,850 |
| Gold (US$/ounce) | 1,411 | 1,321 | 1,400 | 1,400 |
| Iron Ore (US$/mt) | 135 | 103 | 95 | 95 |
| CPO (US$/mt) | 736 | 858 | 858 | 858 |
| BDI | 1,219 | 1,500 | 1,800 | 1,800 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Greater China 2H14 Market Strategy Analyst Presentation | Kuala Lumpur, Taipei | 6-7 Aug, 11-12 Aug |
| Bumilama Agri Corporate Luncheon | Singapore | 13 Aug |
| Jiangnan Group Corporate Roadshow | Hong Kong | 15 Aug |
| Dah Chong Hong Luncheon | Hong Kong | 19 Aug |
| Singamas Container Holdings Corporate Roadshow | Hong Kong | 22 Aug |
| Top Glove Corporate Roadshow | Montreal | 2 Sep |
| Asian Gems Conference | Singapore | 8-9 Oct |
Top Picks (BUY)
- CNBM (3323 HK): Target price HK$9.82, potential upside +26.2%
- ICBC (1398 HK): Target price HK$6.15, potential upside +17.4%
- Bank Mandiri (BMRI J): Target price Rp10,800, potential upside +3.8%
- Gamuda (GAM MK): Target price RM5.60, potential upside +15.7%
- DBS (DBS SP): Target price S$22.68, potential upside +23.8%
- Pacific Radiance (PACRA SP): Target price S$1.55, potential upside +13.6%
- Bangkok Bank (BBL TB): Target price THB237.00, potential upside +18.8%
- PTT (PTT TB): Target price Rp361.00, potential upside +10.1%
Key Recommendations
- GAC: Downgraded to HOLD due to weakened sales momentum and increased earnings uncertainty.
- Sunac China Holdings: Maintained as BUY, with 16.4% upside potential.
- United Tractors: Initiated as BUY with target price of Rp28,000.
Earnings and Valuation Highlights
- GAC:
- 1H14 net profit growth of 48% yoy to Rmb1.8b.
- GQ Honda sales assumed at 435,000 units for 2014.
- Trumpchi expected to contribute to earnings in 2016.
- Sunac:
- 1H14 net profit growth of 15% yoy.
- Flattish results for 1H14, but strong earnings reversal in 2H14.
- PE of 11.3x for 2014F, P/B of 0.9x, and EV/EBITDA of 5.9x.
Risk Factors
- Geopolitical risks, such as anti-Japanese riots, could impact Japanese car sales in China.
- GAC Fiat and GAC Mitsubishi may face higher overheads due to capacity expansion.
- Greentown China's profit warning may lead to short-term correction in Sunac's share price.
Conclusion
The document outlines investment recommendations, financial forecasts, and market updates for several key companies in the Asia-Pacific region. GAC is downgraded due to weakened sales momentum, while Sunac China remains a BUY with strong potential for growth. United Tractors is newly initiated with a BUY rating, and HKT Trust is highlighted as a BUY due to synergies from the CSL merger. The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with economic growth expected in most regions and sector-specific opportunities in property and automotive.
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