2021年的世界：将影响国际议程的十个问题（英）-欧洲智库-2020.12-20页_488kb

CIDOB Notes Internzonales: The World in 2021 – Ten Issues Shaping the International Agenda

Core Content

CIDOB and EsadeGeo outline the key international issues that will define 2021, emphasizing the transition from a year of destruction (2020) to one of construction or reconstruction. The report highlights that 2021 will be a critical year for global decisions, with far-reaching implications for international relations, economic recovery, climate action, and societal transformation.

Main Issues and Key Points

1. International System: Cooperation or Conflict?

• Global Governance Weakness: The pandemic exposed the fragility of international institutions, with the UN Security Council taking three months to agree on a resolution (Resolution 2532) on COVID-19.
• Cooperation vs. Nationalism: While some cooperation has been revived, especially at the regional level, protectionist and nationalist responses persist.
• Vaccine Geopolitics: China and Russia will leverage vaccine distribution as a geopolitical tool, similar to their role in supplying medical supplies in 2020. The EU will attempt to donate surplus doses to lower-income countries.
• Humanitarian Crises: The pandemic has worsened poverty and reduced international aid, leading to a "polypandemic" of crises including development regression, institutional fragility, and violence.

2. Biden: Restoration or Reorientation?

• Leadership Transition: The Biden-Harris administration will be seen as a turning point, with high hopes for some and frustration for Trump supporters.
• Multilateralism Revival: The US will re-engage with multilateral institutions, including the WHO and UN Population Fund, but may hesitate on UNESCO and the UN Human Rights Council.
• Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA): Rejoining or renegotiating the deal will be a priority, but the process will be difficult due to mutual distrust and political blockages.
• Democracy and Human Rights: The new administration will emphasize these as foreign policy priorities, potentially leading to a summit of democracies and increased pressure on authoritarian regimes.

3. Action on Climate Change: Postponement or Anticipation?

• Economic Recovery and Green Policies: The greenness of economic recovery steps will be a key focus, especially in relation to COP26 in Glasgow.
• Climate Activism: The pandemic has heightened awareness of climate risks, with activists pushing for urgent action.
• Technological Solutions: Hydrogen technology is expected to play a significant role in the transition to sustainability, with major economies and some in the Global South exploring its potential.
• Short-Term Setbacks: The pandemic has delayed climate action and led to increased use of single-use plastics, complicating environmental efforts.

4. Recovery: Global or Partial?

• Uneven Recovery: Economic recovery will be uneven, with some sectors and regions recovering faster than others.
• Debt and Liquidity Crises: Public debt has risen globally, especially in the euro area and Southern Europe. The EU's new budget and reconstruction funds aim to address this.
• Poverty Increase: The World Bank forecasts that 150 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2021, contradicting the first Sustainable Development Goal.
• Reindustrialisation and Digitalisation: Debates will arise over the goals of reindustrialisation plans and the adaptation of the labor market to digital transformation.

5. Way of Life: Back to Normal or New Normal?

• Work and Mobility: Remote work and digital transformation have accelerated, with significant differences between countries, sectors, and income levels.
• International Relations: Virtual diplomacy has become more prominent, but face-to-face interactions will likely return as health conditions improve.
• Tourism and Consumption: The tourism sector has been severely impacted, with a 70% drop in international arrivals. Countries reliant on tourism face economic and social challenges.
• Digital Giants and Regulation: The pandemic has intensified scrutiny of digital platforms, with governments seeking to control monopolies, protect consumers, and prevent fiscal losses.

Key Information

• Health and Economic Impact: The pandemic has exposed global inequalities and vulnerabilities, affecting both health and economic systems.
• Geopolitical Shifts: China and Russia are using vaccines as a tool for geopolitical influence, while the US is seeking to reassert its leadership in multilateralism.
• Climate and Sustainability: The pandemic has served as a "dress rehearsal" for climate action, but also led to short-term setbacks in environmental efforts.
• Social and Economic Inequality: Women and lower-income groups have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, with gender equality and education gaps worsening.
• Global Cooperation: The success of recovery and international efforts will depend heavily on global cooperation, especially in vaccine distribution and climate agreements.

Conclusion

2021 is positioned as a pivotal year for global decision-making, where the outcomes of the pandemic and the preceding year will shape the future of international relations, economic recovery, and societal norms. The year will be marked by both opportunities for reconstruction and challenges in addressing global inequalities and geopolitical tensions.