欧洲智库-2024年的世界：将影响国际议程的十个问题（英）-2023-20页_1mb

The World in 2024: Ten Issues Shaping the International Agenda

CIDOB's report outlines ten key issues that will define global politics in 2024, reflecting a year marked by heightened uncertainty, conflict, and democratic challenges. Below is a summary of the main points:

Key Issues:

1. Shocks of a Traumatic Election Year:

   • Over 4 billion people across 70 countries will vote, but not all elections occur in full democracies. This year could either signal resilience or deep degradation for democracy, depending on outcomes in key nations like the U.S., India, and Brazil.

2. More Conflict, More Impunity:

   • Ongoing wars, including those in Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan, have increased political violence. The erosion of international norms allows impunity for perpetrators, hindering accountability mechanisms like the International Criminal Court (ICC).

3. From Overload to Disconnection from Society:

   • Social media and AI overload contribute to societal fatigue, reducing participation in online activism and debates. Deteriorating trust in governments and institutions fuels disconnection, especially among young people and marginalized groups.

4. Artificial Intelligence: Explosion and Regulation:

   • Generative AI revolutionizes decision-making and information dissemination, posing risks of manipulation and disinformation. Regulatory efforts, including a new EU law and global discussions at forums like the G7, aim to ensure responsible AI use.

5. Economic Fallout and Debt Sustainability:

   • Weak global growth, high inflation, and geopolitical tensions strain finances. Emerging economies face tighter financial conditions, currency fluctuations, and challenges to debt sustainability, exacerbated by China’s economic slowdown.

6. South(s) and North(s):

   • The Global South, strengthened by blocs like BRICS, challenges Western dominance in climate, trade, and geopolitics. Latin America emerges as a key player, while internal divides in the Global North threaten transatlantic unity.

7. Backsliding on International Commitments:

   • Critics accuse the international community of insufficient action on crises like climate change and the SDGs. Anti-feminist and protectionist trends threaten established cooperative frameworks, with gender equality slipping back significantly.

8. Humanitarian Collapse:

   • Conflict and climate crises displace over 100 million people. Scarcity of international aid reduces humanitarian assistance, leaving vulnerable populations—which already face hunger, displacement, and environmental degradation—more exposed to further instability.

9. Securitisation vs. Rights:

   • Security concerns harden into controls that undermine democratic principles and human rights. Nations increasingly adopt authoritarian tactics, while migration policies risk more overt violations of fundamental freedoms.

10. Decoupling of Interests and Values:

    • Conflicts pit transatlantic relationships against increasingly competing spheres of influence. As international legitimacy wanes, countries pursue diverging agendas, leading to geopolitical fragmentation and a proliferation of new actors gaining prominence from the Global South.

Concluding Thoughts:

The 2024 agenda will be defined by survival: avoiding tipping points in climate, energy, and migration; preventing a resurgence of conflict; resisting further erosion of global governance; and navigating the dilemmas of technological leaps and unintended political consequences.