2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Jamaica_Tenth_Review_Under_the_Arrangement_Under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility_and_Request_for_Modification_of_Performance_Criteria_68页_1mb

IMF Country Report No. 15/343: Jamaica Tenth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility

Core Content Summary

This report outlines the IMF's Tenth Review of Jamaica's economic performance under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement, which was approved in 2013. The review, conducted in November 2015 and finalized in December 2015, highlights Jamaica's progress in macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and fiscal and monetary policy adjustments. The report also includes recommendations and assessments of future policy directions to support growth and job creation.

Main Points

Macroeconomic Stability

• Inflation has fallen to historic lows, driven by low oil prices and a modest recovery in domestic food production.
• Current account deficit has shrunk significantly, reaching US$83.5 million (0.6% of GDP) in Q2 2015.
• Unemployment has decreased to 13.1% in July 2015, with the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector showing the most significant employment gains.
• Exchange rate has depreciated slightly, and the real effective exchange rate has weakened, reflecting the economic adjustment.

Economic Recovery

• The economy showed signs of gradual recovery, with growth of 0.6% y/y in Q2 2015, mainly due to the service sector and a modest agricultural recovery.
• Growth is expected to be 1.4% in FY2015/16, with improving prospects in manufacturing and a modest agricultural recovery.
• Private credit is slowly recovering, and consumer and business confidence have generally been on an upward trend.

Program Implementation

• All quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks for end-September 2015 were met.
• Fiscal targets were exceeded in several areas, including primary balance, tax revenues, and public sector balance.
• Net international reserves (NIR) and net domestic assets (NDA) significantly outperformed program targets.

Structural Reforms

• A new Cash Management Unit was established within the Accountant General's Department.
• The Banking Services Act was implemented, and the Bank of Jamaica (BoJ) was given the responsibility for financial stability.
• Tax reforms were introduced, including the simplification of the customs tariff, the harmonization of corporate income tax (CIT) rates, and the introduction of the Employment Tax Credit.
• The Procurement Act was passed, and a sustainability framework for Agro Parks was completed.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Adjustments

• The fiscal stance was relaxed, with the primary balance target reduced by 0.25% of GDP in FY2015/16 and 0.5% in FY2016/17.
• The monetary stance was eased to support growth, with the BoJ reducing the policy rate by 50 basis points to 5.25% and narrowing the interest rate corridor.
• The BoJ introduced 14-day repo auctions and increased liquidity provisions, though the effect of policy rate reductions was partially offset by sterilization of FX sales.

Risks and Challenges

• Fiscal sustainability remains vulnerable to revenue shortfalls and an increasing wage bill.
• Election-related uncertainty could create market volatility and slow reform progress.
• Reopening the domestic bond market may affect bond pricing and yields, though the risk has been reduced due to the transition of retail repos to a trust-based framework.
• The tax base is under pressure from declining government interest payments, falling real wages, and nominal excise taxes.

Future Policy Directions

• The 2016/17 budget will lower the primary surplus to 7% of GDP to increase capital expenditures.
• A medium-term strategy to reduce the public wage bill to 9% of GDP is in place, with measures to modernize the public sector and reduce employment.
• Tax efficiency and compliance are key priorities, with plans to broaden the tax base and eliminate distortive taxes.
• The Taj is preparing Fiscal Impact Reports to assess the long-term impact of tax reforms.
• A thorough review of public bodies is underway to improve governance and efficiency.

Key Information

• IMF Disbursement: US$39.3 million was approved for disbursement following the Tenth Review.
• Program Duration: The EFF arrangement is a four-year program.
• Performance Criteria: The program includes both quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks.
• Structural Reforms: Significant progress has been made in areas such as procurement, cash management, tax administration, and financial sector regulation.
• Tax Reforms: Tax incentives have been simplified, and the tax base has been broadened, though challenges remain in improving tax efficiency and compliance.
• Public Financial Management: Steps have been taken to modernize the Treasury Single Account (TSA) and improve liquidity management.

Documents Included

• Press Release: Announced the completion of the Tenth Review and the disbursement of US$39.3 million.
• Staff Report: Detailed the economic performance, policy implementation, and recommendations.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Provided an overview of the program's progress and future outlook.
• Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies are also included as attachments.

Tables and Boxes

• Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators.
• Table 2: Summary of Central Government Operations (in millions of Jamaican dollars).
• Table 3: Summary of Central Government Operations (in percent of GDP).
• Table 4: Operations of the Public Entities.
• Table 5: Summary of Balance of Payments.
• Table 6: Summary Accounts of the Bank of Jamaica.
• Table 7: Summary Monetary Survey.
• Table 8: Financial Sector Indicators.
• Table 9: Structural Program Conditionality.
• Table 10: Quantitative Performance Criteria.
• Table 11: Indicators of Fund Credit, 2015-26.
• Table 12: Schedule of Reviews and Purchases.
• Box 1: Structural Reform Progress Since the Ninth Review.
• Box 2: Recent Tax Reforms.

Conclusion

Jamaica has made substantial progress in macroeconomic stability and structural reform under the IMF program. While growth and employment remain below target, the country is on track to meet its performance criteria. Continued fiscal and monetary adjustments, along with reforms in tax administration and public financial management, are expected to support sustainable growth and job creation in the coming years.