20151130-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_13页_2mb
报告摘要
Market Summary: Hong Kong and Global Markets (27 November 2015)
Core Content Overview
This document provides an in-depth summary of the Hong Kong and global stock market trends, including equity indices, sector performance, valuations, market data, and key investment insights. It also highlights recent developments in regulatory actions, economic data, and investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market.
Key Market Trends
Hong Kong Stock Market
- HSI (Hang Seng Index) fell to 22,068, down 1.9% or 420 points.
- HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index) fell to 9,855, down 2.5% or 252 points.
- HSCEI had a significant drop in performance compared to HSI, with a 74.97% daily turnover.
- Main Board turnover was HK$79.1bn, showing a 28.92% daily change.
- The HSI fell below its 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend.
Global Market Conditions
- U.S. stocks saw minimal changes after a shortened session due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
- Dow Jones closed at 17,798, down 14 points.
- S&P 500 closed at 2,090, up 1 point.
- NASDAQ Composite closed at 5,127, up 11 points.
- U.S. dollar strengthened, leading to a decline in commodity prices.
- New York crude oil futures closed at $41.71/bbl, down $1.33.
- New York gold futures settled at $1,056.2/oz, down $13.8.
Investment Highlights
Today's Top Picks
-
UMP (722.HK):
- Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$1.93
- Target Price: HK$2.06
- Stop-loss Price: HK$1.68
- Reason: Expected expansion into China with a high risk/reward ratio.
-
BJENT WATER (371.HK):
- Last Trading Day Closing Price: HK$6.16
- Target Price: HK$7.00
- Stop-loss Price: HK$5.80
- Reason: Strong capacity growth and defensive share price.
Sector Performance
Best Performing Sectors
- Durable Consumables: +1.1% (1D), -0.1% (5D), +3.4% (1M)
- Logistics: +0.7% (1D), -0.7% (5D), +2.8% (1M)
- REITs: +0.1% (1D), -1.1% (5D), -0.7% (1M)
- Dairy: -0.4% (1D), -1.9% (5D), -10.4% (1M)
- HK Telecoms: -0.9% (1D), +0.1% (5D), -4.5% (1M)
- Aluminum: -1.0% (1D), -0.9% (5D), -0.6% (1M)
- Department Store: -1.0% (1D), -3.6% (5D), -7.8% (1M)
- Toll Road: -1.0% (1D), -1.8% (5D), +0.1% (1M)
- HK Consumer Group: -1.1% (1D), -0.9% (5D), -1.4% (1M)
- Marine: -1.1% (1D), -3.0% (5D), -3.3% (1M)
- Sports Accessories: -1.1% (1D), -2.6% (5D), +7.0% (1M)
- Chinese Telecoms: -1.1% (1D), -4.1% (5D), -3.3% (1M)
- Local Banks: -1.3% (1D), -1.8% (5D), -1.5% (1M)
- Steel: -1.4% (1D), -3.4% (5D), -2.2% (1M)
- Telecoms Equipment: -1.4% (1D), -2.5% (5D), -5.2% (1M)
Major Stocks in Best Performing Sectors
- Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
- Logistics: Kerry Log Net (636), SITC (1308)
- REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (277)
- Dairy: Biostime (1112), CH Modern (1117), YST Dairy (1431), Mengniu (2319), Huishan Dairy (6863)
- HK Telecoms: HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823)
- Aluminum: Chalco (2600), China Hongqiao (1378), China Zhongwang (1333), RUSAL (486)
- Department Store: NWDS China (825), Springland (1700), Intime (1833), Golden Eagle (3308), Parkson Group (3368)
- Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), An Expressway (995)
- HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
- Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
- Sports Accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xstep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
- Chinese Telecoms: China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941)
- Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)
- Steel: Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Res (639)
- Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
Valuations and Earnings Growth
| Index/Stock | FY15E P/E (X) | Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E (X) | Deviation from Avg. (%) | FY1 EPS Growth (%) | FY2 EPS Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng Index | 11.1 | 11.3 | -1.1 | -12.8 | 5.3 |
| HSCEI | 7.4 | 8.5 | -12.9 | -2.0 | 4.1 |
| Shanghai Comp | 14.7 | 11.0 | +33.1 | +22.6 | +10.6 |
| S&P 500 | 17.7 | 14.7 | +20.1 | +5.6 | +9.0 |
Market Data
Best and Worst Performers
-
Best Performers:
- WANDA HOTEL DEV (169.HK): +3.5% (1D), +6.4% (5D), -0.8% (1M), -27.8% (YTD)
- PACIFIC TEXTILE (1382.HK): +2.4% (1D), +2.2% (5D), +8.1% (1M), +16.5% (YTD)
- NEW WORLD CHINA (917.HK): +2.0% (1D), +2.2% (5D), -0.8% (1M), +11.1% (YTD)
- JOHNSON ELEC H (179.HK): +2.0% (1D), +7.8% (5D), -0.7% (1M), -1.1% (YTD)
- TRAD CHI MED (570.HK): +1.9% (1D), +0.8% (5D), -9.4% (1M), +19.0% (YTD)
-
Worst Performers:
- HAiTONG INT'L (665.HK): -7.6% (1D), -5.2% (5D), +13.2% (1M), +49.6% (YTD)
- GUOTAI JUNAN (1788.HK): -7.4% (1D), -19.1% (5D), -8.7% (1M), +33.7% (YTD)
- SINOPEC SHANG-H (338.HK): -7.3% (1D), -10.3% (5D), -14.2% (1M), +22.5% (YTD)
- TIANNENG POWER (819.HK): -7.0% (1D), -5.2% (5D), +9.0% (1M), +198.5% (YTD)
- MACAU LEGEND (1680.HK): -6.4% (1D), -8.0% (5D), -7.2% (1M), -64.6% (YTD)
HSCI Volume Filter
- KB LAMINATES (1888.HK): -2.3% (1D), -5.2% (5D), +8.1% (1M), +14.2% (YTD), 374.3% volume increase
- XINGDA INTL (1899.HK): -2.4% (1D), -6.8% (5D), +1.8% (1M), +25.8% (YTD), 320.3% volume increase
- APT SATELLITE HL (1045.HK): +0.8% (1D), -1.8% (5D), +5.3% (1M), +20.7% (YTD), 316.6% volume increase
- CATHAY PAC AIR (293.HK): -4.1% (1D), -10.7% (5D), +5.3% (1M), +14.2% (YTD), 274.4% volume increase
- POLYTEC ASSET HO (208.HK): +1.1% (1D), -5.3% (5D), +9.0% (1M), +23.1% (YTD), 258.8% volume increase
- SINOPEC SHANG-H (338.HK): -7.3% (1D), -10.3% (5D), -14.2% (1M), +22.5% (YTD), 231.0% volume increase
- CONCH VENTURE (586.HK): -3.7% (1D), -8.1% (5D), +9.0% (1M), +198.5% (YTD), 214.5% volume increase
- GREATVIEW ASEPTI (468.HK): -3.6% (1D), -5.2% (5D), +1.0% (1M), +23.1% (YTD), 211.5% volume increase
- AVICHINA INDUS-H (2357.HK): -3.2% (1D), -5.2% (5D), +9.0% (1M), +198.5% (YTD), 178.7% volume increase
- NWS HOLDINGS (659.HK): -4.0% (1D), -2.8% (5D), +2.8% (1M), +160.6% (YTD), 160.6% volume increase
Most Short Sold Stocks
- WANDA HOTEL DEV (169.HK): -3.5% (1D), 0.0% shortsell turnover, 99.1% of own turnover
- WHARF HLDG (4.HK): -2.7% (1D), 73.0% shortsell turnover, 52.1% of own turnover
- CATHAY PAC AIR (293.HK): -4.1% (1D), 74.6% shortsell turnover, 51.4% of own turnover
- LUK FOOK HLDGS I (590.HK): -3.0% (1D), 15.6% shortsell turnover, 49.8% of own turnover
- HENDERSON LAND D (12.HK): -1.6% (1D), 60.0% shortsell turnover, 46.6% of own turnover
- BANK EAST ASIA (23.HK): -2.3% (1D), 30.5% shortsell turnover, 44.0% of own turnover
- HUADIAN FUXIN -H (816.HK): -1.3% (1D), 8.8% shortsell turnover, 42.6% of own turnover
- NEWOCEAN ENERGY (995.HK): -6.4% (1D), 25.0% shortsell turnover, 23.1% of own turnover
- MACAU LEGEND (1680.HK): -6.4% (1D), 23.1% shortsell turnover, 23.1% of own turnover
- GUOTAI JUNAN (1788.HK): -7.4% (1D), 257.8% shortsell turnover, 257.8% of own turnover
- SINOPEC SHANG-H (338.HK): -7.3% (1D), 147.8% shortsell turnover, 147.8% of own turnover
- TIANNENG POWER (819.HK): -7.0% (1D), 95.3% shortsell turnover, 95.3% of own turnover
- MACAU LEGEND (1680.HK): -6.4% (1D), 23.1% shortsell turnover, 23.1% of own turnover
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
Interest Rates
| Rate | Latest (%) | 5D Change (bps) | 1M Change (bps) | YTD Change (bps) | y-y % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. 2-year Treasury yield | 0.9204 | +0.30 | +19.64 | +25.59 | +45.19 |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield | 2.2148 | -2.29 | +7.27 | +4.36 | +5.08 |
| U.S. 30-year Treasury yield | 2.9904 | -0.16 | +6.82 | +23.86 | +10.16 |
| HK 1-month HIBOR | 0.1971 | +0.70 | -1.84 | -3.81 | -3.19 |
| HK 3-month HIBOR | 0.3741 | +0.19 | -0.93 | -0.73 | +0.06 |
| SH 1-month HIBOR | 2.7000 | +0.00 | -12.40 | -288.80 | -144.80 |
| SH 3-month HIBOR | 3.0500 | +0.60 | +0.30 | -208.51 | -111.95 |
Exchange Rates
| Currency Pair | Latest | 5D % Chg | 1M % Chg | YTD % Chg | y-y % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Dollar Index | 100.1600 | +0.4 | +3.3 | +11.0 | +13.4 |
| USD/HKD | 7.7503 | +0.0 | +0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| EUR/USD | 1.0580 | -0.5 | -4.0 | -12.5 | -15.2 |
| USD/JPY | 122.81 | +0.0 | -1.7 | -2.5 | -3.6 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5025 | -0.6 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 |
| USD/CHF | 1.0310 | -1.2 | -4.3 | -3.6 | -6.4 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7174 | -0.3 | +0.4 | -12.2 | -15.5 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6520 | +0.0 | -3.3 | -16.4 | -17.1 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3380 | -0.1 | -2.1 | -13.2 | -15.3 |
| USD/CNY | 6.3915 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -2.9 | -3.7 |
| USD/CNH | 6.4508 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -3.6 | -4.5 |
Precious Metals and Commodities
| Commodity | Latest | 5D % Chg | 1M % Chg | YTD % Chg | y-y % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRB Index | 183.2 | -0.5 | -6.3 | -20.3 | -28.0 |
| Comex Gold | 1,056.3 | -1.9 | -7.5 | -10.8 | -10.1 |
| Comex Silver | 14.015 | -0.6 | -10.0 | -10.0 | -9.5 |
| Nymex WTI Crude | 41.91 | +3.8 | -10.0 | -21.3 | -36.6 |
| ICE Brent Crude | 44.91 | +0.2 | -9.4 | -21.7 | -36.0 |
| LME Copper | 4,573.00 | -0.2 | -12.4 | -27.4 | -30.3 |
| LME Aluminum | 1,457.50 | +0.7 | -1.3 | -21.3 | -28.7 |
| CBT Wheat | 465.75 | -5.1 | -8.5 | -21.0 | -17.1 |
| CBT Corn | 359.25 | -1.4 | -5.5 | -9.5 | -5.0 |
| CBT Soybean | 873.00 | +1.5 | -2.0 | -14.3 | -16.6 |
A-Share Premium to H-Share
| Company | H Share Code | H Price (HK$) | A Share Code | A Price (RMB) | A-Share Premium to H-Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUOYANG GLASS-H | 1108 | 5.36 | 600876 | 34.33 | 676.7 |
| SINOPEC OILFIE-H | 1033 | 2.24 | 600871 | 8.70 | 371.0 |
| ANGANG STEEL-H | 347 | 3.06 | 000898 | 4.58 | 81.5 |
| ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H | 1057 | 10.32 | 002703 | 35.74 | 319.9 |
| CMOC-H | 2880 | 3.42 | 601880 | 6.20 | 119.8 |
| CHINA RAIL GR-H | 390 | 6.55 | 601390 | 11.44 | 111.8 |
| TIANJIN CAP-H | 1065 | 6.23 | 600874 | 10.79 | 110.0 |
| SHANDONG CHEN-H | 1812 | 5.14 | 000488 | 8.69 | 105.0 |
| CHINA PACIFIC-H | 2601 | 31.90 | 601601 | 26.39 | 0.3 |
| JIANGSU EXPRESS-H | 177 | 10.36 | 600377 | 8.34 | -2.4 |
| PING AN-H | 2318 | 43.30 | 601318 | 33.84 | -5.2 |
| FUYAO GLASS IN-H | 3606 | 17.78 | 600660 | 13.83 | -5.7 |
| CHINA COM CONS-H | 1800 | 9.10 | 601800 | 14.12 | 88.2 |
| ANHUI CONH-H | 914 | 21.00 | 600585 | 16.30 | -5.9 |
| CHINA VANKE-H | 2202 | 18.96 | 000002 | 14.26 | -8.8 |
Top 20 Most Traded ETFs
| ETF Code | ETF Name | Price (HK$) | 1D % Chg | 5D % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2822 | CSOP FTSE CH-HKD | 12.42 | -4.46 | -5.77 |
| 2823 | ISHARES FTSE A50 | 11.02 | -3.67 | -4.01 |
| 2828 | HS H-SHARE ETF-H | 100.80 | -2.51 | -4.27 |
| 2800 | TRACKER FUND HK | 22.30 | -1.98 | -2.83 |
| 3188 | CHINAAMC 300-CNY | 36.20 | -5.11 | -5.24 |
| 2833 | HSI ETF-HKD | 227.00 | -2.16 | -3.16 |
| 2827 | CSI 300 CHINA | 31.85 | -6.32 | -6.60 |
| 3147 | CSOP SZSE ETF-HK | 12.10 | -5.62 | -3.20 |
| 2840 | SPDR GO | - | - | - |
Summary
The Hong Kong stock market experienced a downturn, with the HSI and HSCEI both falling significantly, driven by a weak market sentiment and regulatory investigations. The HSCEI showed a larger drop, indicating a more pronounced bearish trend. The Main Board turnover was HK$79.1bn, reflecting the market's overall weakness.
HKEX (388.HK) is recommended for purchase at HK$200 with a target of HK$257 and a stop-loss at HK$170, due to its potential for growth and the anticipated improvement in the investment climate in 2016.
UMP (722.HK) and BJENT WATER (371.HK) are highlighted as top picks due to their expected price increases and strong fundamentals.
In terms of sector performance, Durable Consumables, Logistics, and REITs showed positive movements, while Dairy, HK Telecoms, and Steel lagged behind. HSCEI had a higher volume than HSI, indicating more activity in the Chinese market.
Interest rates showed mixed trends, with the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield rising slightly, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell. The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen, affecting commodity and gold prices negatively.
The A-share premium to H-share was significant for several companies, with some showing a premium of over 200%. This suggests that A-shares are more expensive relative to their H-share counterparts, which could influence investment decisions for cross-listed companies.
The Top 20 most traded ETFs reflect market activity and investor sentiment, with some showing notable declines in price. The HSI ETF-HKD and CSI 300 CHINA were among the most traded, indicating investor focus on the Hang Seng and China indices.
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