20150817-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_13页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an investment summary with insights into the Hong Kong and Chinese equity markets, including indices performance, stock highlights, sector trends, valuations, and market data such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities. It also includes information on ETFs and the A-share premium to H-share.

Main Market Trends

• HSI closed at 23,991, down 0.1%, with a year-to-date (YTD) change of 1.6%.
• HSCEI closed at 11,060, down 0.2%, with a YTD change of -7.7%.
• Hong Kong Market Turnover:
  • HSI: HK$20.2bn, down -34.13%
  • HSCCI: HK$6.0bn, down -9.07%
  • HSCEI: HK$9.3bn, down -35.80%
  • Main Board: HK$64.2bn, down -26.05%

External Market Conditions

• U.S. Stocks advanced, with the Dow closing at 17,477, up 69 points; S&P 500 at 2,091, up 8 points; and NASDAQ at 5,048, up 14 points.
• ADR Performance suggested a potential rise of 15 points for the HSI.
• Crude Oil prices fell to the lowest since March 2009, then rebounded slightly to US$42.50/bbl.
• Gold Prices declined due to a strong U.S. Dollar, settling at US$1,112.7/oz.
• Currency Trends:
  • USD Dollar Index: 96.7060, down -0.5%
  • USD/HKD: 7.7557, down 0.0%
  • EUR/USD: 1.1096, up 0.7%
  • USD/JPY: 124.4, up 0.2%
  • GBP/USD: 1.5645, up 0.3%
  • USD/CNY: 6.4026, down -3.0%
  • USD/CNH: 6.4490, down -3.6%

Stock in Focus: Johnson Elec H (179.HK)

• Last Close: HK$27.30
• Entry: HK$26.00
• Target: HK$29.40
• Stop-loss: HK$25.30
• YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -4.4% / +6.8% / -2.5% / -8.7%
• Market Cap: HK$24.0bn
• 3M Average Daily Volume: 0.42mn shares
• FY1 Forward P/E: 13.9X

Key Insight: Johnson Electric is set to benefit from overseas M&A, particularly the acquisition of Stackpole International, which is expected to enhance growth and profitability in the first fiscal year post-acquisition. The company is currently testing its down trend line and is recommended to buy if the price drops to HK$26.

Today's Top Picks

• HOSA INT'L (2200.HK):

  • Last Close: HK$3.87
  • Purchase Price: HK$3.67
  • Target Price: HK$4.20
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$3.40
  • Reason: Strong performance in the sportswear industry with notable R&D and gross profit margin (GPM).

• CHINA COMM CONS (1800.HK):

  • Last Close: HK$10.84
  • Purchase Price: HK$10.60
  • Target Price: HK$12.30
  • Stop-loss Price: HK$9.60
  • Reason: A 10-day moving average (MA) breaking above the 20-day MA, forming a golden cross, indicating a potential breakout.

Sector Performance Overview

Best Performing Sectors (1D % change)

• Sports accessories: +4.3%
• Agriculture: +2.5%
• Airline: +1.4%
• Durable Consumables: +1.3%
• Local Banks: +1.2%
• Logistics: +1.1%
• Infrastructure: +0.9%
• Department Store: +0.9%
• Chinese Property: +0.8%
• Gaming: +0.8%
• Oil-related: +0.7%
• Environmental and New Energy: +0.7%
• Building Materials: +0.6%
• HK Telecoms: +0.5%
• Consumer Staples: +0.4%

Key Stocks in Best Performing Sectors

• Sports accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xtep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
• Agriculture: First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983)
• Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055)
• Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
• Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)
• Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Cons. (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Comm. Cons. (1800), China Machinery Eng. (1829)
• Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)

Valuation Analysis of Major Indices

• Hang Seng Index:

  • FY15E P/E: 11.9
  • Long-term average forward P/E: 11.4
  • Deviation from average: +4.0%
  • FY1 EPS growth: -13.3%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +9.6%

• HSCEI:

  • FY15E P/E: 8.2
  • Long-term average forward P/E: 8.9
  • Deviation from average: -8.3%
  • FY1 EPS growth: -1.2%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +9.2%

• Shanghai Composite:

  • FY15E P/E: 16.2
  • Long-term average forward P/E: 11.1
  • Deviation from average: +46.1%
  • FY1 EPS growth: +24.8%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +13.6%

• S&P 500:

  • FY15E P/E: 17.7
  • Long-term average forward P/E: 14.4
  • Deviation from average: +22.9%
  • FY1 EPS growth: +4.8%
  • FY2 EPS growth: +11.0%

Market Data Highlights

Best and Worst Performers (Previous Day)

• Best Performers:

  • CITIC Resources (1205.HK): +15.9%
  • Fufeng Group Ltd (546.HK): +8.8%
  • Sun Art Retail (6808.HK): +8.5%
  • Fu Shou Yuan Int (1448.HK): +8.2%
  • Sinopec (338.HK): +8.0%

• Worst Performers:

  • CRTG (269.HK): -9.2%
  • Zhaojin Mining-H (1818.HK): -5.9%
  • Lenovo Group (992.HK): -5.8%
  • SFCE (1165.HK): -4.5%
  • Want Want China (151.HK): -4.5%

HSCI Volume Filter

• FDG EVEHICLES (729.HK): Price: HK$0.480, 1D change: 0.0%, Avg. Vol: 74.3m shares, Prev. Vol: 800.0m shares, % Increase: 977.1%
• Li Ning CO LTD (2331.HK): Price: HK$4.270, 1D change: +2.6%, Avg. Vol: 9.2m shares, Prev. Vol: 46.4m shares, % Increase: 402.8%
• Fu Shou Yuan Int (1448.HK): Price: HK$5.000, 1D change: +8.2%, Avg. Vol: 4.0m shares, Prev. Vol: 18.3m shares, % Increase: 361.8%
• CITIC (267.HK): Price: HK$14.940, 1D change: +6.6%, Avg. Vol: 26.3m shares, Prev. Vol: 105.9m shares, % Increase: 302.1%

Most Short Sold Stocks

• Pioneer Pharm (1345.HK): Price: HK$4.300, 1D change: -2.7%, Shortsell Turnover: HK$0.5m
• Sun Art Retail (6808.HK): Price: HK$6.650, 1D change: +8.5%, Shortsell Turnover: HK$75.4m
• SoHo China (410.HK): Price: HK$4.600, 1D change: -0.4%, Shortsell Turnover: HK$5.6m
• Fuyao Glass IN (3606.HK): Price: HK$16.72, 1D change: -3.4%, Shortsell Turnover: HK$10.4m
• CEB Bank-H (6818.HK): Price: HK$4.12, 1D change: -5.8%, Shortsell Turnover: HK$872.6m

A-share Premium to H-share

• LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108.HK): H-share price: HK$7.34, A-share price: RMB 35.83, A-share premium: 491.3%
• JIANGXI COPPER-H (358.HK): H-share price: HK$10.76, A-share price: RMB 17.52, A-share premium: 97.2%
• SUN ART RETAIL (6808.HK): H-share price: HK$6.65, A-share price: RMB 15.96, A-share premium: 78.3%
• CHINA OILFIELD-H (2883.HK): H-share price: HK$9.86, A-share price: RMB 22.79, A-share premium: 180.0%
• CHINA SHIPPING-H (1138.HK): H-share price: HK$5.49, A-share price: RMB 11.08, A-share premium: 144.5%
• CHINA SOUTHERN-H (1055.HK): H-share price: HK$6.51, A-share price: RMB 11.68, A-share premium: 117.3%

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

• 2822.HK: CSOP FTSE CH-HKD, Price: HK$13.76, 1D change: -0.15%, 5D change: -1.57%
• 2823.HK: IShares FTSE A50, Price: HK$12.18, 1D change: +0.16%, 5D change: -1.30%
• ... (additional ETFs not fully displayed)