20210622-牛津经济研究院-Global_travel_outlook_highlights_amp_risks_-_June_2021_10页_536kb

Global Travel Service Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the global travel and tourism recovery from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, focusing on the year 2021 and outlook for 2022-2024. It highlights the role of vaccination rates, regional differences in recovery, and the influence of travel restrictions and new variants on the industry's performance.

Main Points

Domestic vs International Travel Recovery

• Domestic travel is expected to recover more quickly than international travel, with global domestic arrivals projected to be just 12% below 2019 levels in 2021 and fully recovered by 2022.
• International travel remains significantly impacted, with global arrivals expected to be 59% below 2019 levels in 2021.
• Governments have eased domestic restrictions faster, leading to increased traveler confidence and a quicker rebound in domestic tourism.

Role of Vaccination

• Vaccination success is a key driver of international travel recovery, particularly in Europe and North America, which have seen rapid rollouts.
• Emerging economies face challenges due to limited vaccine access and slow administration, which may delay their recovery.
• A 70% vaccination rate is seen as a critical threshold for achieving herd immunity and easing travel restrictions.

Regional Outlook

Europe

• Expected to lead the international travel recovery by 2024, with 49% below 2019 levels in 2021.
• The EU's digital health pass is anticipated to boost regional travel and ease traveler concerns.
• Inbound arrivals to North America will remain 63% below 2019 levels in 2021, but are expected to recover by 2024.

North America

• Domestic guest nights are 10% below 2019 levels in 2021, with full recovery by 2022.
• Inbound arrivals are 62% below 2019 levels in 2021, and are expected to recover by 2024.
• The Caribbean is capitalizing on "working from home" trends and has seen a faster recovery than other parts of Latin America.

Latin America

• Domestic travel is more resilient, with arrivals expected to be 5% below 2019 levels in 2021.
• International travel remains 66% below 2019 levels in 2021 due to slower vaccine rollouts and rising infection rates.
• Mexico has performed better than other Latin American destinations due to less restrictive policies.

Asia-Pacific

• Domestic travel is expected to drive recovery, with 75% of total guest arrivals in 2019 coming from within the region.
• International arrivals are projected to be 77% below 2019 levels in 2021, though some improvement is expected in subsequent years.
• India faces significant challenges due to severe outbreaks and a slow vaccine rollout, affecting inbound travel.

Middle East

• Inbound arrivals are 63% below 2019 levels in 2021, but recovery is expected by 2023.
• The UAE is a key driver of recovery, with events like ATM and Expo2021 boosting visitor numbers.
• Delta variant concerns are a major downside risk, especially for countries with high Indian tourist inflows.

Africa

• Domestic travel accounts for 70% of guest arrivals in 2019, and is expected to recover by 2022.
• Inbound travel is projected to remain below 2019 levels until 2025, one year later than the global average.
• Countries like Seychelles, Mauritius, and Morocco are leading the vaccination effort, while others face challenges with vaccine distribution and public trust.

Key Risks and Challenges

• New variants, especially Delta, continue to pose a threat to travel confidence and restrict international movement.
• Uneven recovery across regions due to varying vaccination rates and health conditions.
• Pent-up demand is expected to drive a significant rebound in international travel as restrictions ease.
• Traveler confidence is still fragile, particularly for long-haul and less familiar destinations.

Economic and Macroeconomic Outlook

• Global GDP growth is forecasted to rise to 6.4% in 2021 and 4.6% in 2022, driven by consumer spending and excess savings accumulated during lockdowns.
• Advanced economies are leading the recovery, while non-Chinese emerging markets may see slower growth due to rising infection rates.
• Employment trends suggest a gradual return to normalcy, with consumer spending expected to recover before employment growth.

Summary of Visitor Growth Forecasts (2021-2024)

Key Information

• The global travel industry is recovering, but unevenly.
• Domestic travel is leading the rebound, with Asia-Pacific and Latin America showing strong domestic resilience.
• Vaccination rates are critical for international travel recovery, but progress varies widely across regions.
• New variants like Delta are a major risk to traveler confidence and international mobility.
• Mega-events such as the UAE's ATM and Qatar's World Cup are expected to drive recovery in the Middle East and North Africa.