2022-02-28-牛津经济研究院-Eurozone_A_change_of_fortune_across_EU_industries_looms_4页_275kb

Eurozone Industrial Performance: Uneven Recovery and Future Challenges

Background: Post-pandemic, industrial performance in the EU has varied significantly, with Germany and France lagging due to transport sector issues and input shortages, while Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, Greece, and others like Poland have outperformed through supply chain advantages and specific industries like pharma.

Key Factors:

• Lagging economies (Germany and France) suffered from sectors such as transport and automotive, exacerbated by semiconductor shortages and reduced aircraft demand.
• Outperformers (e.g., CEE nations) benefited from dense supplier networks, strong demand for consumer and intermediate goods, and high-value additions, with pharma growth driven by COVID-19 vaccine production.
• Recovery was V-shaped initially, with industrial output regaining pre-pandemic levels, but subsequent decline was masked by excluding the top two economies.

Near-Term Outlook: Expect a reversal as input shortages ease, potentially boosting production in lagging countries, but growth may slow in outperformers. Energy price surges could lift industry in some nations but pose risks for energy-intensive sectors.

Challenges Ahead:

• Short-term risks include rising energy costs, green transitions, and labor shortages, which could affect competitiveness and supply chains (e.g., automotive).
• Long-term structural issues involve climate-related demand shifts, while competition from China in high-value activities adds pressure.

Summary: The EU industrial sector is transitioning unevenly, with emerging trends like green energy and supply chain reboots presenting both opportunities and hurdles for sustainable growth.