2021-07-26-牛津经济研究院-APAC_Why_scars_from_the_pandemic_will_vary_across_the_region_5页_461kb

Summary: APAC Economic Scarring from COVID-19

Key Findings

The COVID-19 pandemic will cause lasting negative economic impacts on the Asia Pacific region, with regional GDP projected 2.9% lower and approximately US$700bn lower in 2025 compared to pre-pandemic forecasts. However, the extent of economic scarring (permanent GDP loss) varies significantly across countries due to multiple factors.

Variation Across Region

• Countries like Taiwan and Vietnam are expected to outperform due to strong semiconductor and electronics exports, higher investment, and faster recovery, resulting in GDP gains.
• India and the Philippines face substantial losses, with GDP estimated 8% lower, primarily due to low investment, high unemployment, and poor containment of outbreaks.
• Other nations such as Thailand and Indonesia suffer moderate to severe scarring, influenced by tourism dependency and slow vaccination rates.

Factors Influencing Economic Scarring

The Oxford Economics "Economic Scarring Scorecard" incorporates factors like the decline in activity during the crisis, recovery pace, health-related issues (e.g., outbreaks and low vaccination rates), economic structure (e.g., reliance on tourism or internet penetration), and policy responses (e.g., fiscal and monetary easing).

Risks

Ongoing virus outbreaks, low vaccination rates, and potential vaccine ineffectiveness could double the projected losses. Prolonged restrictions, such as those in Malaysia and Thailand, exacerbate delays in recovery, particularly in Southeast Asia, leading to deeper economic setbacks.

Conclusions

Economic resilience depends on effective containment, vaccination, and supportive policies. Countries with better pandemic management and structural advantages, like technological adaptation, experience less scarring.