2022-04-03-牛津经济研究院-APAC_Large_variations_across_cities_in_medium_term_employment_growth_5页_372kb

Asia Pacific Regional Outlook on Employment Growth (31 March 2022)

• Economic Context: Despite challenges from the global impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply shortages, Asia Pacific cities are expected to recover economically in 2022, driven by the easing of lockdowns, reopening of international borders, and broader economic improvements. However, GDP forecasts have been revised downward globally due to these issues, potentially affecting recovery.

• Employment Growth Variations: Medium-term employment growth shows large disparities across cities, primarily due to demographic shifts like aging populations, economic dynamism, and sector-specific drivers. Service sectors are key for many cities, while industrial employment is expected to decline.

• Key Findings: In 2022, Ho Chi Minh City leads with strong employment growth due to manufacturing, followed by Delhi and Sydney. Cities with aging populations, such as Taipei, Seoul, and Tokyo, face constraints; for example, Taipei's working-age population and employment will likely decrease. In contrast, cities like Shenzhen and Bengaluru maintain growth but with different drivers.

• Sectoral Changes: Employment in services (e.g., finance, business services, ICT) is projected to grow significantly, while industrial jobs will shrink starting from 2025 for major cities. Office-based jobs are set to increase, concentrated in cities with economic hubs, like those in Northeast Asia and India.

• Overall Trend: The average employment growth rate for Asia Pacific cities (1.4% annually 2022-26) is below pre-pandemic levels, reflecting natural demographic limits and economic maturation. Demographic constraints vary by city, with some like Delhi benefiting from improving demographics.