2021-08-18-牛津经济研究院-US_Recovery_Tracker_falters_as_the_Delta_variant_spreads_3页_392kb

US Recovery Tracker Summary

Core Content

The US Recovery Tracker, which measures the pace of economic recovery, declined by 0.3 percentage points to 96.4 in the week ended August 6, indicating a slowdown in the recovery process despite overall economic momentum. This decline is attributed to the spread of the Delta variant, which has led to a deterioration in health conditions, reduced consumer activity, and weaker employment and production data. The report highlights the regional differences in the recovery process, with the South experiencing the most significant setbacks.

Main Points

• National Recovery Tracker:

  • Fell to 96.4 in the first week of August.
  • The decline was driven by weaker demand, reduced mobility, and worsening health conditions.
  • Financial conditions improved slightly, with equities reaching new highs and interest rates remaining low.

• State Recovery Trackers (SRTs):

  • 42 states saw a decline in their recovery readings.
  • All five regions experienced a deterioration in recovery, with the South being the most affected.
  • The South's recovery index dropped by 5.2 percentage points to 76, matching conditions seen in early March 2021.

• Regional Breakdown:

  • South:
    • Deteriorated the most, with health conditions and mobility declining sharply.
    • Louisiana, Florida, and Mississippi saw the fastest declines.
  • Southwest & Mountains:
    • Fell by 3.2 percentage points to 81.5.
    • Texas experienced a third consecutive week of decline.
  • Pacific:
    • Lost momentum by 2.3 percentage points to 76.3.
    • California's SRT also declined.
  • Midwest:
    • Declined by 1.5 percentage points to 87.2.
    • Illinois and Ohio saw declines, while Michigan remained stable.
  • East:
    • Least affected, declining by 0.8 percentage points to 85.9.
    • Health conditions declined less steeply, mitigating the impact on recovery.

Key Information

• Covid-19 Impact:

  • New cases surged to 138,000 per day, with hospitalizations and deaths also rising.
  • The Delta variant is driving the resurgence, particularly in the South.
  • Rising vaccination rates, with 66% of adults fully inoculated and 78% having received at least one dose, offer some protection against severe cases and economic downturns.

• Economic Indicators:

  • Demand: Fell by 1.7 percentage points to 103.5, due to declining hotel occupancy, credit/debit card spending, and restaurant bookings.
  • Mobility: Declined by 1.6 percentage points to 97.8, linked to weaker gasoline demand and reduced commercial flight traffic.
  • Health Conditions: Deteriorated by 0.5 percentage points to 81.0, as new cases per million and positive test rates increased.
  • Employment: Weakened by 0.3 percentage points to 98.8, with small business and temporary employment slipping.
  • Production: Softened by 0.3 percentage points to 88.1, due to fewer business applications and a drop in small business openings.
  • Financial Conditions: Improved by 2.3 percentage points to 109.1, as equities hit record highs and Treasury yields remained low.

• Outlook:

  • The report suggests that strong future economic gains will be harder to achieve without improvement in health conditions.
  • The spread of the Delta variant poses a downside risk, but the high vaccination rate provides some optimism.

Figures and Sources

• Figure 1: The US Recovery Tracker started August on a subdued note.
• Figure 2: The Recovery Tracker declined to an eight-week low in the first week of August.
• Figure 3: Regional recoveries are losing momentum.
• Figure 4: The new wave of Covid infections in the South is leading the national surge.
• Sources: Oxford Economics, Apple, Baker Hughes, Burning Glass, COVID Tracking Project, EIA, FlightRadar24, Google Insights, Our World in Data, Safegraph, STR, University of Maryland, Haver Analytics, Homebase, OpenTable, Optunity Insights.