德银-亚太地区-金属与采矿业-澳大利亚铁矿石价格修订-2019.1.31-31页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Australian Metals and Mining Industry Update - 31 January 2019

Core Content

This document provides an update on the Australian metals and mining sector, with a focus on iron ore and major companies such as BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue Metals Group (FMG), and Mineral Resources (MIN). It outlines revised price forecasts, production guidance, financial performance, and valuation changes based on market developments, particularly the impact of the Vale dam disaster in Brazil.

Key Market Developments

Iron Ore Price Forecast: Revised to $68/tonne for 2019, with a declining trend expected from $81/t to $75, $70, $65, and $63 over Q1-Q4 2019.
Supply and Demand: The forecast surplus for iron ore in 2018 remains, but is reduced to 29Mt from 43Mt. The surplus for 2020 is revised to 36Mt from 65Mt.
Supply Risk: The Vale dam incident led to a production cut plan, which initially caused a price surge, but the impact is expected to be gradual and not immediate.
Market Impact: Chinese steel production growth of 1% and supply-side reliability are key factors affecting the bearish outlook on prices.

Company Performance and Valuation

FMG:
- Valuation: Revised DCF to $4.95/tonne, with target price set at $4.90.
- Share Price: Near 40% rise YTD, suggesting long-term iron ore prices need to be 15% higher to justify current valuation.
- EPS: Increased by 24% in FY19.
- Product Mix: Lump ore shipments increased significantly in Q2, while Super Special Fines decreased.
- Costs: C1 costs rose to $13.02/wmt in Q2, with expectations of higher full-year costs.
Rio Tinto:
- EPS Estimates: Lifted by 15%, 17%, and 4% over 2019-2021.
- Target Price: Increased to $82.50/share from $80/share.
- Production Guidance: Expected to be between 338-350Mt for 2019, with potential to gain market share as Vale falls behind.
BHP:
- EPS Estimates: Lifted by 6% and 9% over FY19 and FY20.
- Target Price: Increased to $28.30 from $28.
- Production: Recovery mode post train derailment, with guidance for 273-283Mt for 2019.
Mineral Resources (MIN):
- Rating: Buy.
- EPS and Valuation: Increased by 7% and 12% respectively in FY19 and FY20.

Financial Highlights

FMG:
- Net Debt: Remained at $3bn in Q2.
- Cash Returns: Dividend and buyback totaled $270m and $101m respectively.
- EBITDA: Expected to be $3,179m in 2019.
- P/E Ratio: Reduced from 13.7 to 11.2.
Rio Tinto:
- EPS: Increased to $5.17 in 2019.
- P/E Ratio: Increased from 12.1 to 12.1.
BHP:
- EPS: Increased to $1.90 in 2019.
- P/E Ratio: Reduced from 13.3 to 13.1.
FMG's NPV: Increased to $4.95/tonne, with a price target of $4.90.

Risks and Outlook

Supply Risks: Continued production cuts from Vale and potential disruptions in Brazil.
Market Volatility: Prices are expected to trend downward throughout 2019 due to increased supply.
Valuation Risks: FMG's share price has risen significantly, requiring higher long-term iron ore prices to justify current valuation.
Sector Risks: Commodity and currency price deviations, capex budget changes, mechanical and technical challenges, and weather conditions.