巴黎银行-巴西-宏观经济-巴西：审判Lula-20180118-9页_443kb

Summary of "Brazil: Lula's Trial" Document

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the legal proceedings against former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, focusing on the upcoming decision by the Appeals Court (TRF-4) on 24 January regarding his corruption conviction. The report outlines the potential legal outcomes and their implications for Lula's eligibility to run in the upcoming presidential election.

Main Potential Outcomes

The document presents three main scenarios based on the Appeals Court's decision and subsequent legal appeals:

Scenario 1: Unanimous Guilty Verdict (3x0)

• Likelihood: High
• Outcome: Lula would be barred from running in the presidential race.
• Legal Process:
  • The Appeals Court will review Judge Moro's decision.
  • The verdict will be announced on 24 January.
  • If the verdict is upheld, Lula cannot register as a candidate, even if he appeals further.
  • The defense may request clarification, which typically takes 20 days.
  • If the judges disagree on the sentence, the verdict remains, but the sentence may be reassessed in about six months.

Scenario 2: Split Guilty Verdict (2x1)

• Likelihood: Low
• Outcome: Lula's candidacy may depend on the Supreme Court's decision.
• Legal Process:
  • Lula can appeal to the STJ and then to the STF.
  • The Appeals Court's verdict may be suspended until the final decision is made.
  • A panel of six judges will reassess the verdict, which could take up to seven months.
  • The defense may also request clarification, which could take another 20 days.

Scenario 3: Not Guilty Verdict

• Likelihood: Very low
• Outcome: Lula would be eligible to run for president.
• Legal Process:
  • A "not guilty" verdict would allow Lula to register as a candidate.
  • Even if he was investigated in other cases, this outcome would not affect his eligibility.

Key Information

• The Appeals Court's decision on 24 January is pivotal for determining Lula's eligibility in the October presidential election.
• If convicted, Lula may still have limited options to appeal, but his candidacy would likely be blocked.
• The legal process is complex and involves multiple stages of appeal, which could prolong the resolution.
• The report includes a flow chart that outlines the potential legal pathways and timelines.

Legal Notice

• The document is a marketing communication and not investment research.
• It is not intended for use by individuals who are not "Relevant Persons" as defined under MiFID II.
• BNPP may have conflicts of interest and may engage in transactions that are inconsistent with the views expressed in the document.
• The document may contain simulated performance data and is based on public sources, which may not be independently verified.
• The information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as authoritative or as a basis for investment decisions.
• BNPP disclaims any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.

Legal Disclosures

• The document includes important disclosures for options, ETFs, and convertible securities, emphasizing the risks and the need for professional advice.
• Certain securities may not be registered under U.S. law and are only available to Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) or non-U.S. persons.
• The report is distributed in accordance with local legal requirements in various countries, including the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, and the Netherlands.

Conclusion

The legal proceedings against Lula are expected to have a significant impact on the upcoming Brazilian presidential election. While the most probable outcome is that he will be barred from running, the process is subject to multiple appeals and legal interpretations, which may introduce uncertainty and delay the final determination.