巴黎银行-巴西-宏观经济-巴西：选举追踪-20180129-65页_4mb

Brazil: Election Tracker Summary

Core Content

• Lula's Legal Status: Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva lost his appeal against corruption charges on 24 January 2018. The Appeals Court (TRF4) ruled unanimously, making him ineligible for the October 2018 presidential election.
• Legal Appeal Path: Lula can still appeal the decision in the Superior Court (STJ) and the Supreme Court (STF), but the likelihood of reversing the ruling is low.
• Election Timeline:
  • 1st Round: 7 October
  • 2nd Round (Run-off): 21 October
  • Candidate Registration Deadline: 15 August
  • Party Substitution Deadline: 17 September

Main Candidates and Parties

• Lula (PT): The Workers' Party's most likely candidate, though his eligibility is in question. He has a high floor of support but also a high rejection rate.
• Bolsonaro (PSL): The far-right candidate, expected to be the PSL's choice for the 2018 presidential election.
• Marina Silva (REDE): The most likely candidate for the Sustainability Network Party (REDE).
• Alckmin (PSDB): The most likely candidate for the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), with João Doria as an alternative.
• Luciano Huck (DEM): A potential candidate for the Democrats (DEM) party, though he has stated he will not run.
• Ciro Gomes (PDT): The likely candidate for the Democratic Labour Party (PDT).

Key Information

• Election Campaigning: Despite being ineligible, Lula can begin campaigning from 15 August with a temporary permit.
• TV and Radio Time:
  • The first round of TV and radio advertising will end on 4 October.
  • The second round will end on 25 October.
  • 1st Round Distribution:
    • 10% of time is equally divided among candidates.
    • 90% is divided based on the coalition's size in the Lower House.
  • 2nd Round Distribution:
    • 50% of time for each candidate, with a 10-minute daily advertisement.
• Internet Access:
  • 42.2% of Brazilians had no internet access in 2015, making TV and radio the primary sources of information.
  • 57.8% had internet access, increasing the role of social media in political campaigns.
• Voter Profile:
  • Education and Income: Data from Datafolha and Ibope show variations in voting intentions based on income and education levels.
  • Geographical Distribution: Voter share varies by region, with significant representation in urban centers.
• Electoral Changes:
  • In 2018, the candidate must meet one of the following: 1.5% of total valid votes, 1.0% in at least nine states, or elected at least nine congressmen in at least nine states.
  • In 2020, the threshold increases to 1.5% of total valid votes and 1.5% in nine states.

Political Parties Overview

Key Trends and Analysis

• Voter Rejection: Lula has the highest rejection level among major candidates, possibly due to the "car-wash" scandal.
• Social Media Influence: Social media plays a growing role in political campaigns, with candidates like Bolsonaro and Lula having significant online presence.
• Coalition Dynamics: The distribution of TV and radio time is influenced by coalition strength in the Lower House, which is crucial for campaign visibility.
• Political Landscape: The 2018 election is marked by a diverse set of candidates and parties, with varying levels of support and influence across different demographics and regions.

Conclusion

The 2018 Brazilian presidential election is a pivotal moment with significant legal and political implications. Lula's legal status is a major concern for his party, while Bolsonaro and Marina Silva are strong contenders. The election landscape is shaped by diverse voter profiles, media influence, and coalition dynamics, making it a complex and highly anticipated event.