20180118-法国巴黎银行-Brazil__Lula_s_trial_9页_386kb

Summary of "Brazil: Lula's Trial" Document

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the legal status of former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, focusing on the upcoming Appeals Court (TRF-4) decision on his corruption conviction, scheduled for 24 January. The outcome of this decision will significantly impact Lula's eligibility to run for president in the upcoming October election.

Main Scenarios

Scenario 1: Guilty, Unanimous Vote (3x0)

• Likelihood: High
• Outcome: Lula would be barred from running for president.
• Process:
  • The Appeals Court will review Judge Moro's decision.
  • A panel of three judges will assess the case and sentence.
  • If the verdict is upheld, Lula cannot register as a candidate.
  • The defense can request a reassessment of the sentence ("embargos infringentes"), which may take up to six months.
  • Even after this, Lula can still appeal to the Superior Court (STJ) and the Supreme Court (STF), but the conviction will remain in place until the final decision.

Scenario 2: Guilty, Split Vote (2x1)

• Likelihood: Low
• Outcome: Lula's candidacy could be possible, depending on the Supreme Court's decision.
• Process:
  • A split verdict may allow for a reassessment of the verdict itself, not just the sentence.
  • A panel of six judges would reassess the decision.
  • The entire process could take up to seven months.
  • The verdict may be suspended until the final decision is made, potentially allowing Lula to register as a candidate.

Scenario 3: Not Guilty

• Likelihood: Very low
• Outcome: Lula would be eligible to run for president.
• Process:
  • If the Appeals Court rules Lula not guilty, he would be free to register as a presidential candidate.
  • This outcome would not prevent him from running, even if he is still under investigation in other cases.

Key Information

• Legal Process: The case involves multiple levels of judicial appeal, including the Appeals Court (TRF-4), the Superior Court (STJ), and the Supreme Court (STF).
• Impact on Election: The outcome of the Appeals Court decision will directly affect Lula's ability to participate in the October presidential election.
• Uncertainty: The legal process is complex and may lead to significant delays and uncertainty, especially in the case of a split verdict.
• Defence Options: Lula has limited options to appeal the conviction, but he can challenge the sentence or the verdict itself, depending on the scenario.
• Flow Chart: A visual flow chart is included to illustrate the potential outcomes and consequences of the Appeals Court decision.

Legal and Regulatory Notice

• This document is produced by BNP Paribas and is not an exhaustive legal analysis.
• It may be subject to conflicts of interest due to the interaction with sales and trading teams.
• The document is non-independent research and may be considered a marketing communication under MiFID II.
• It is not intended to provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice.
• The information is based on public sources and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.
• The document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any financial instrument.
• It is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties, and may not be used by non-relevant persons.

Disclaimer

• BNP Paribas may have financial interests in the securities or entities mentioned.
• The document may include simulated performance data and is not indicative of future results.
• Information may be subject to change without notice.
• The document is confidential and may not be copied, reproduced, or distributed without prior written consent.
• BNPP and its affiliates may engage in transactions inconsistent with the views expressed in the document.

Jurisdictional Information

• The document is subject to legal notices and disclosures specific to the United States, the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands.
• These notices include important disclosures regarding options, ETFs, and securities not registered under US law.
• The document is not a prospectus and does not constitute an offer to sell securities in any jurisdiction.