巴黎银行-巴西-宏观经济-巴西：2018年选举路线图-20171110-BNP_Paribas-Brazil2018_election_roadmap_8页_594kb

Summary of "Brazil: 2018 Election Roadmap"

Core Content

The document outlines the political and economic landscape leading up to the October 2018 Brazilian presidential election, with a focus on the campaign timeline, key candidates, and the potential impact of economic conditions on the election outcome. It also touches on the legislative elections and the shifting political dynamics in Congress.

Main Viewpoints

• Campaign Timeline: The 2018 presidential campaign is expected to be shorter than previous cycles, with the first round starting on 15 August and the second round on 28 October. The media campaign is limited to about a month (September).
• Candidate Registration: A key deadline is 15 August for officially registering candidates with the Electoral Justice, which may delay the emergence of clear frontrunners.
• Economic Context: Brazil is experiencing economic recovery, with expected GDP growth of 1.0% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. Inflation is expected to remain below the 4.5% target, and interest rates are likely to stay on hold.
• Political Trends: There is a shift towards centrist policies in both presidential and legislative elections, driven by the rejection rates of left-leaning and polarizing candidates.
• Candidate Rejection Rates: Early polls show high rejection rates for potential candidates, particularly Lula at 42% and Jair Bolsonaro at 33%, indicating a lack of public support and potentially affecting their viability.
• Congressional Shift: The Senate is expected to shift rightward, as several left-leaning senators, including those associated with Lula, are up for re-election and may lose their seats due to declining public support.
• Legislative Election: The Lower House will see a 45% turnover, with a significant portion of seats up for grabs, further influencing the political balance.

Key Information

Presidential Election Timeline

Candidate Dynamics

• Lula is unlikely to be an official candidate due to high rejection rates.
• Bolsonaro also has a high rejection rate, suggesting potential challenges.
• A convergence towards the center is expected as the campaign progresses, due to the two-round voting system and the need for coalition-building.
• Reformist candidates are expected to benefit from the improving economy and support for current reforms, such as privatization and concessions.

Legislative Election Impact

• The Lower House will undergo a 45% turnover, with all seats up for election.
• The Senate will see a 66.6% turnover, with two-thirds of seats being contested.
• Left-leaning senators, who were previously supported by Lula, are at risk of losing their seats, leading to a rightward shift in the Senate.

Conclusion

The 2018 Brazilian election is expected to be volatile but constructive, with the improving economy likely to support reformist candidates. A rightward shift in Congress is anticipated, which may influence the political direction of the country. While early polls indicate high rejection rates for several candidates, the convergence towards the center is considered a plausible outcome, especially as the campaign progresses. The shortened timeline and changes in registration deadlines may prolong uncertainty, but the overall political and economic environment is expected to favor centrist and reformist agendas.