2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Serbia_First_Review_under_the_Policy_Coordination_Instrument_62页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 18/375: Republic of Serbia

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 18/375 outlines the First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) for the Republic of Serbia, which was approved on July 18, 2018. The review, completed on December 21, 2018, evaluates the country's economic performance, program implementation, and policy discussions, while also addressing future outlook and risks.

Main Points

1. Economic Performance

• Serbia's economy continues to perform strongly, with real GDP growth of 4.2% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019, partly due to a recovery from the 2017 drought.
• Private consumption, FDI, and exports are key drivers of growth.
• Inflation remains below the NBS target, and the central bank has kept interest rates unchanged since April 2018.
• Public debt has declined sharply, and the general government fiscal balance improved, with a surplus of 1.1% of GDP in January–September 2018.
• The Serbian dinar has remained broadly stable against the euro, with the NBS reducing its intervention in the exchange rate.

2. Program Implementation

• The program is largely on track, with quantitative targets (QTs) met for most indicators, except for a minor deviation in the domestic arrears QT.
• Reform targets (RTs) have been largely implemented, although some delays occurred.
• The 2019 budget is aligned with PCI objectives, maintaining fiscal adjustment and public debt reduction while supporting growth and investment.

3. Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Policy: Continue the pro-growth fiscal agenda, with a focus on reducing the tax wedge, increasing transparency, and improving the predictability of public spending.
• Monetary Policy: Strengthen operational frameworks, including reforms of state-owned financial institutions and enhancing financial safety nets.
• Financial Sector Policies: Address AML/CFT weaknesses, reduce euroization, and improve the banking sector's resilience.
• Structural Reforms: Focus on improving the business climate, reducing the grey economy, and reforming state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public administration.

Key Information

4. Outlook and Risks

• The economic outlook is positive, supported by continued reform momentum and a stable macroeconomic environment.
• Inflation is expected to gradually rise but remain in the lower half of the inflation target band.
• The current account deficit is projected to remain at 5.25% of GDP in 2018, with a decline to 4.25% of GDP in the medium term.
• Risks are considered moderate, including spillovers from regional and global developments, potential political resistance to structural reforms, and fiscal discipline challenges.

5. Fiscal Policy Details

• The 2018 fiscal surplus is 0.5% of GDP, consistent with PCI objectives.
• The 2019 budget targets a small deficit of 0.5% of GDP, with a focus on maintaining public debt reduction and increasing capital investment.
• Labor taxation reform includes eliminating the employers' part of the unemployment contribution, reducing the tax wedge by 0.75%.
• R&D and innovation measures are proposed, with a call for sunset clauses and reporting tax expenditures.
• Parafiscal charges will be consolidated to improve transparency and reduce administrative burdens.

6. Pension Reform

• Pension spending has decreased from an average of 13% of GDP (2005–2015) to 10.5% of GDP.
• Temporary cuts to pensions were introduced in 2015–2018 to address the pension fund deficit, and these cuts are now being unwound.
• A 5% supplement for pensions below RSD 34,000/month is proposed, which could help redistribute benefits but may weaken contribution-benefit links.
• The authorities plan to reintroduce pension indexation in 2019 and implement further parametric reforms to ensure long-term sustainability.

7. Tax Administration Reform

• A working group has been established to oversee tax reforms, involving the Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration.
• A consultant has been hired to develop a roadmap for separating core and non-core activities in the tax administration.
• The VAT refund process has been improved, with the NBS committed to expedite refunds once new software is implemented.
• A new e-inspection system is being introduced with support from the EBRD.

Structural Reforms

• The government is advancing reforms to public enterprises, including privatization of Petrohemija.
• A new public employment framework is planned for 2020 to reduce fiscal pressures and increase flexibility.
• Reforms to state-owned utilities and financial institutions are being pursued to improve efficiency and governance.

Program Modalities

• The first review under PCI was completed without a formal meeting.
• The program aims to support macroeconomic and financial stability while advancing an ambitious reform agenda.
• The next review is expected to occur in 2019, with updated QTs and RTs.

Conclusion

The Republic of Serbia has made significant progress in implementing its economic program under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). The country is on track to achieve its fiscal and structural objectives, with a focus on private sector growth, reducing public debt, and improving the business environment. While risks remain, the IMF supports the continued reform efforts and fiscal discipline as critical for long-term stability and convergence with EU income levels.