20241116-国联证券-吉利汽车-00175.HK-销量业绩创新高_进入新时代_6页_1mb

Summary of Jil auto (00175) Third Quarter Performance and Strategic Shift

Sales and Financial Performance

• In Q3 2024, Geely Automobile achieved record-high vehicle sales of 53.4 million units, a 187% year-on-year increase and an 86% month-on-month increase.
• Consequently, Q3 2024 revenue reached 603.8 billion yuan, displaying a significant year-on-year growth of 205% and a growth of 98% month-on-month.
• The average revenue per vehicle increased by 15% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month, mainly attributed to improved product portfolio.
• However, the gross profit margin deteriorated by 27 percentage points in Q3 2024 compared to 2023, affected by factors including increased discounts or input cost volatility.

Key Strategic Changes

• On September 20, 2024, Geely Holding issued the "Taizhou Declaration," outlining strategic shifts, including a focus on its core automotive business and comprehensive integration of assets.
• Geely Automobile announced on November 14, 2024, the acquisition of certain equity interests:
  • Acquisition by Zeekr Motors (a Geely brand) of 30% of Liangchi Motors (formerly part of Geely Auto's portfolio) for 5.4 billion yuan.
  • Acquisition by Geely Automobile (GAC) of the remaining 51.3% stake in Zeekr Motors from Geely Holding for 3.6 billion yuan, increasing Geely Automobile's total stake in Zeekr Motors to 62.8%.

Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendation

• Maintained "Buy" recommendation based on expected sustained high-growth in sales volume and market share.
• Projected total new vehicle deliveries (Geely Automobile, Zeekr, Liangchi) of 21.43 million, 27.82 million, and 32.80 million units for 2024-2026, respectively.
• Forecasted average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.8% from 2024 to 2026, supported by new product launches and expanded market share.

Risk Factors

• Product delivery delays may impact growth targets.
• Increased industry competition could pressure profitability.
• Rising input costs for raw materials.
• Potential for sales forecasts to be off.

Geely Automobile is navigating a period of rapid growth and strategic adjustment, leveraging its product lineup to expand its market position while consolidating its industrial ecosystem to enhance operational synergies.