2022-02-17-dentsu-2022年全球广告预测报告（英）_46页_8mb

Summary of Dentsu's Global Ad Spend Forecasts (January 2022)

Core Content Overview

Dentsu International has released its global ad spend forecasts for 2022, highlighting a strong recovery from the pandemic and a continued shift in media consumption habits. The report outlines key trends, regional insights, and the evolving role of different media channels in the advertising landscape.

Main Points

Global Ad Spend Growth

• 2022 Growth: Global ad spend is forecast to grow by 9.2%, reaching US$745.0 billion, which is US$117.2 billion above the 2019 prepandemic level.
• 2021 Recovery: 2021 saw a record growth of 17.0%, exceeding the 2019 level by US$68.2 billion.
• Future Projections: Growth is expected to continue in 2023 (4.6%) and 2024 (5.8%), surpassing pre-pandemic growth rates.

Digital Dominance

• Digital Share: Digital ad spend is projected to account for 55.5% of global ad spend in 2022, increasing to 59.4% by 2024.
• Key Growth Drivers: Social media (21.4% YOY), Video (18.9% YOY), and Search (16.9% YOY) are leading digital growth.
• Quarterly Growth: Q1 2022 will grow by 8.9%, Q2 and Q3 by 10.3% and 10.7%, and Q4 by 9.2%, driven by major events and the holiday season.

Media Trends

• Television: Linear TV ad spend will grow by 3.8% to US$197.8 billion, but its share of global spend is declining due to the rise of Connected TV and Video on Demand (VOD).
• Print: Print ad spend is expected to decline by 5.6% in 2022, remaining 29.4% lower than 2019 levels. However, it continues to play a role in building long-term relationships with audiences.
• Out-of-Home (OOH): OOH ad spend is forecast to exceed prepandemic levels by US$3.0 billion, reaching US$40.6 billion. It will maintain a 5.5% share of global ad spend, driven by digital advancements and sustainability initiatives.
• Cinema: Cinema ad spend is expected to grow by 23.4%, reflecting a return to in-person gatherings and event-based advertising.

Regional Outlook

• Americas: Expected to grow by 13.7%, with a 52.8% digital share.
• Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA): Growth of 5.9%, with 52.6% digital share.
• Asia-Pacific (APAC): Growth of 5.9%, with a 61.1% digital share.

Key Influencing Factors

• Economic Recovery: The global economy is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2022, slightly slower than 2021 but still above pre-pandemic levels.
• Pandemic Impact: The evolution of the pandemic, including new variants, remains a key uncertainty.
• Supply Chain Pressures: Semiconductor shortages and inflationary pressures are expected to ease in the second half of 2022.
• Political Dynamics: Elections in various regions may impact ad spend and consumer behavior.
• Climate Change: A growing concern among consumers, with 86% expressing worry about its impact.

Media Transformation

• Fragmentation of Viewership: The shift to on-demand and streaming services is driving a transformation in the media landscape.
• Hybrid Models: The rise of hybrid models (SVOD + AVOD) is expected to become more prevalent as brands seek to balance premium and ad-supported content.
• Live Events: Major global events like the Winter Olympics in Beijing and the FIFA World Cup in Qatar will drive significant ad spend and TV viewership in 2022.
• Influencer Marketing and Trust: Trust in brands is becoming more critical, especially with the rise of influencer marketing and the need for data-driven advertising strategies.

Key Insights

• Digital is the future: Digital ad spend is growing rapidly and is expected to dominate the market in the coming years.
• Live and communal viewing: Despite the rise of on-demand content, live events and communal viewing experiences will remain important for brands.
• OOH and sustainability: OOH is rebounding and is becoming more data-driven and sustainable, with a focus on green technologies.
• Programmatic and measurement: The role of programmatic buying and measurement is expanding, especially in OOH and digital.
• Adaptation is key: Brands must adapt to new media consumption patterns, leverage data, and explore new channels like retail media and gaming.

Conclusion

The global advertising market is on a path of recovery and transformation in 2022. Digital media continues to be the fastest-growing segment, while traditional media like TV, Print, and OOH are evolving to meet new consumer demands. The year will be marked by a blend of live and digital experiences, driven by major events and a shift in how consumers engage with content. Brands that can navigate these changes and innovate in their media strategies will be best positioned for success.