dentsu-2018全球广告支出预测报告（英文版）-2018.6-13页-4mb

Global Ad Spend Forecasts Summary (June 2018)

Core Content Overview

The Dentsu AEGIS Global Ad Spend Forecasts for June 2018 indicate a modest recovery in global advertising spend, with growth rates increasing from 3.3% in 2017 to 3.9% in 2018, and expected to remain stable at 3.8% in 2019. The report highlights the continued shift towards digital media, the dominance of key markets like the US and China, and the impact of technological innovation on traditional media.

Key Trends and Forecasts

1. Global Ad Spend Growth

• 2018 Growth: 3.9%, up from 3.6% mid-year forecast.
• 2019 Growth: 3.8%, consistent with 2018's performance.
• Total Global Spend in 2018: $613.5 billion.

2. Market Contributions

• US and China are the main contributors to new growth in 2018, accounting for one third and one quarter, respectively.
• Emerging economies such as India continue to show high growth rates, reaching 10.5% in 2018 and 11.1% in 2019.

3. Digital Media Growth

• Digital ad spend is expected to grow by 12.6% in 2018, 11.3% in 2019.
• Digital will overtake TV in 2018, capturing 38.4% of total ad spend versus 35.5% for TV.
• Digital subcategories showing the highest growth:
  • Online Video: 24.6%
  • Mobile: 23.3%
  • Social Media: 21.6%

4. Programmatic Advertising

• Programmatic ad spend is forecast to grow by 23.2% in 2018 and 19.1% in 2019.
• Advertisers are leveraging programmatic buying to reach valuable audiences at scale across formats and devices.

5. Mobile Advertising

• Mobile ad spend is projected to reach 25.2% of global ad spend in 2018, up from 24.8%.
• Mobile ad spend is expected to grow by 23.3% in 2018 and 18.8% in 2019.
• In-app advertising accounts for 80% of mobile ad spend.

Regional Market Insights

United States

• Ad spend growth is forecast at 3.4% in 2018, up from 3.2% in January 2018.
• TV ad spend is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2018 and 1.1% in 2019, driven by sporting events (e.g., Winter Olympics) and political events (e.g., US mid-term elections).
• Digital ad spend will overtake TV in the US in 2019.

United Kingdom

• Ad spend is forecast to grow by 4.2% in 2018, up from 3.8% in January 2018.
• Digital ad spend is expected to reach 62% of total spend by 2019.
• Print ad spend is projected to decline by 7% (Newspapers) and 8% (Magazines) in 2018, with slower declines in 2019.

China

• Ad spend is forecast to grow by 6.5% in 2018, reaching RMB 630 billion.
• Digital ad spend accounts for 60% of the total, growing by 14.8% in 2018.
• E-commerce is projected to make up 40.5% of total digital spend in 2019.
• BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) are expected to contribute 80% of the growth in the Chinese market.

Traditional Media Decline

• Traditional media (Newspapers, Magazines, Print) is expected to decline by -0.5% in 2018 and -0.4% in 2019.
• Newspapers will see a decline of -7.5% in 2018, down from -7.9% previously forecast.
• Magazines are forecast to decline by -6.5% in 2018 and -6.4% in 2019.

Other Media Types

• Radio is forecast to grow by 2.0% in 2018 and 1.2% in 2019, reaching $37.3 billion.
• Out-of-Home (OOH) is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, reaching $37.7 billion.
• Cinema continues to grow, with 5.9% in 2018 and 5.2% in 2019, despite capturing only 0.6% of total global ad spend.

Digital Dominance and Future Outlook

• Digital media is now the largest ad spend category, with 38.4% of total global spend in 2018.
• Paid Search is projected to overtake Print in 2018, but its growth rate (8.9%) is slower than digital overall.
• Mobile is expected to grow by 23.3% in 2018 and 18.8% in 2019, with 52.2% of global online traffic coming from mobile in 2018.

Conclusion

The report underscores a gradual shift from traditional to digital media, with digital advertising becoming the dominant force in global ad spend. China and the US are key growth drivers, while emerging markets like India show strong potential. TV is expected to recover modestly, aided by new technologies such as Addressable TV and Connected TV. Traditional media faces continued decline, but moderate growth is anticipated in Radio, OOH, and Cinema due to technological innovation and evolving consumer habits.