2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Zimbabwe_Second_Review_Under_the_Staff_39页_1mb

Summary of the Second Review of the Staff-Monitored Program for Zimbabwe

Core Content

The Second Review of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for Zimbabwe was completed by the IMF Management on September 30, 2015, following discussions in Harare from August 31 to September 11, 2015. The review assessed recent developments, the outlook for the economy, and the progress made under the program. It emphasized the need for continued reform efforts and reengagement with creditors to improve the economic outlook and restore access to financial support.

Main Points

Zimbabwe's Economic Situation

• Economic and financial conditions remain challenging, with slowed GDP growth, rising unemployment, and a shift to the informal sector.
• External position is precarious, due to low international reserves, debt distress, and adverse shocks such as drought, depreciation of the South African rand, and lower commodity prices.
• Inflation remains negative, influenced by the multicurrency regime and depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
• Outlook for 2016 includes a modest recovery, driven by improved agricultural conditions, but inflation is expected to remain negative.

Program Performance

• The program is on track, with four of five quantitative targets met for the end-June 2015 test date.
• Structural benchmarks for the second review were fully met.
• A $200 million nonconcessional loan was contracted, which helped avoid additional external arrears, but breached the target for new nonconcessional debt.

Key Reforms and Progress

• Significant progress was made in financial sector reforms, labor market liberalization, and public expenditure rationalization.
• ZAMCO, the asset management corporation, has started acquiring nonperforming loans (NPLs), and the recovery strategy is being developed.
• Reforms in public financial management (PFM) and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have advanced, including draft amendments to the PFM Act and Procurement Act.
• The Zimbabwe Investment Authority (ZIA) is publishing guidelines on indigenization law, and labor laws have been amended to enhance labor market flexibility.

Policy Discussions and Risks

Downside Risks

• Fiscal challenges remain a key risk, including revenue shortfalls and increased public expenditure.
• Weak global commodity prices and adverse weather could further impact the mining sector and government revenues.
• Unemployment is rising, which may expand the informal sector.
• Uneven policy implementation and opposition from vested interests could hinder reform efforts and arrears clearance.

Upside Potential

• Strong implementation of reforms and reengagement with creditors could reopen access to financial support and improve the economic outlook.
• Improved financial sector performance, such as declining NPLs and increased capital adequacy, is a positive sign.
• Successful completion of the SMP and support from the Lima meeting could facilitate reengagement with the International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and bilateral creditors.

Program Design and Monitoring

• The SMP will continue to be monitored through quantitative targets and structural benchmarks.
• Proposed modifications to targets include:
  • A lower floor on the primary balance to reflect the weaker growth outlook.
  • An adjusted floor on the stock of reserves to account for lower fiscal balance and external flows.
• The remaining structural benchmarks focus on fiscal transparency, enhancing PFM, and improving the business climate.

Key Support and Technical Assistance

• The IMF will continue to support Zimbabwe in its economic reforms and debt clearance.
• Technical assistance is being provided in areas such as public financial management, tax and customs administration, NPL resolution, and macroeconomic statistics.
• The Zimbabwean authorities are seeking support from creditors and development partners at the Lima meeting.

Reengagement with Creditors

• The authorities have intensified reengagement with the international community, with the goal of resolving arrears to IFIs.
• A strategy for clearing external arrears is being developed, involving bridge loans, SDR allocations, and long-term bilateral financing.
• The Lima meeting is a key platform for seeking support and advancing the reengagement process.

Conclusion

The Zimbabwean authorities have demonstrated strong commitment to the SMP, despite economic and political challenges. The program performance has been positive, and the ongoing reforms are critical for restoring macroeconomic stability and access to financial support. Continued support from the international community, successful implementation of the SMP, and deepening of reforms are essential for improving the economic outlook and reengaging with creditors.