2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Islamic_Republic_of_Afghanistan_Second_Review_Under_the_Staff_51页_1mb

Summary of the Second Review of the Staff-Monitored Program for the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Core Content

The Second Review of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for Afghanistan, completed on April 13, 2016, marked the end of a nine-month program aimed at addressing fiscal and banking vulnerabilities, preserving macroeconomic stability, and promoting inclusive growth. The program was approved in May 2015, following the first review in November 2015. The IMF welcomed the successful implementation of the SMP and noted that the authorities had requested a new financial arrangement, the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), to address ongoing challenges.

Main Points

Economic Developments and Outlook

• Growth: Real GDP growth for 2016 is projected at 2%, only marginally higher than 2015. The outlook remains challenging due to security and political uncertainties, weak governance, and the drawdown of international troops.
• Inflation: Inflation turned negative in 2015 but has since returned to positive territory. It is expected to rise to 3% in 2016 and 6% over the medium term.
• Trade: The trade deficit remains high, at nearly 40% of GDP, but is partially offset by official grants, resulting in a current account surplus of 4.5% of GDP in 2015.
• Exchange Rate: The Afghani depreciated by 17% in 2015, but Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB) maintained a comfortable reserve buffer of more than 8 months of imports.
• Public Finances: Domestic revenues increased in 2015, surpassing the target, while expenditures remained high. The overall budget deficit was 1.4% of GDP in 2015, higher than the initial projections.

Structural Challenges

• Fiscal and Banking Vulnerabilities: The economy continues to face significant challenges in terms of revenue collection, public spending, and financial sector stability.
• Banking System: The financial sector remains fragile, with non-performing loans increasing from 7.8% to 12.3% of total loans. Despite improvements in liquidity and capital, lending to the private sector remains subdued.
• Security and Migration: The security situation and political instability have led to increased emigration and capital outflows, which have placed downward pressure on the exchange rate.
• Corruption: Endemic corruption is a major obstacle to economic efficiency and institutional development.

Program Implementation

• The SMP was implemented successfully, with all end-December quantitative targets met, and most structural benchmarks achieved.
• The program helped build a track record for a potential future IMF financial arrangement.
• The authorities expressed interest in the ECF to support sustainable growth and donor support.

Key Information

Structural Benchmarks

• Currency Reporting: The revised regulation under the AML Law was not met by end-June 2015 but completed by end-December. The priority is now enforcement.
• Asset Classification and Provisioning: The regulation was not met in the first review but completed by end-December. It aligns with international standards.
• Risk-Based Audits: A data-driven risk-based audit case selection process was implemented by end-October 2015.
• Related Party Lending: The updated regulation was met by end-December 2015, with new rules effective from October 1, 2016, and January 1, 2017.

Policy Discussions

• Fiscal Policy: The 2016 budget is seen as broadly sound, with a focus on increasing development and pro-poor spending.
• Public Investment Program: There is a need for a public investment program to support growth and development.
• Financial Sector Reforms: Continued efforts are required to reform the banking sector, including improving asset quality and increasing private sector lending.
• Growth Reforms: Reforms to boost growth and employment are essential, particularly in the context of weak governance and institutions.

Next Steps

• Discussions on the ECF are scheduled to begin in May 2016.
• The establishment of a centralized Risk Based Compliance Analysis Unit is expected by May 2016.
• Further improvements to the anti-corruption legal framework are needed, including the criminalization of certain offenses in line with international standards.
• The authorities are working on amending the mining law and developing a transparent fiscal regime for natural resources.

Selected Economic Indicators (2013–2016)

Conclusion

The second review of the SMP concluded successfully, with the Afghan authorities meeting most of the program's targets. However, the country continues to face significant economic and political challenges that hinder growth and stability. The ECF is expected to play a crucial role in addressing these issues and supporting sustainable development. The IMF remains committed to working with Afghanistan to improve its economic outlook.