2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sudan_Second_Review_Under_the_2009_37页_818kb

Summary of Sudan: Second Review Under the 2009-10 Staff-Monitored Program

Core Content

This document outlines the IMF's second review of Sudan's economic performance under the 2009–10 Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), conducted in the context of political uncertainty surrounding the 2011 South Sudan referendum. It includes the staff report, staff supplement, and statement by the Executive Director. The report discusses economic developments, policy discussions, performance under the SMP, and the macroeconomic implications of South Sudan's potential independence.

Main Points

1. Economic Developments in 2010

• Economic growth in 2010 is projected to moderate to about 5%, reflecting slower growth in both oil and non-oil sectors.
• Inflation remained around 11%, with 12-month inflation at 9.8% in November, driven by rising international food prices and expansionary monetary policy.
• The current account deficit is expected to decline to 7.7% of GDP in 2010 from 10.8% in 2009, due to increased oil exports and moderate import growth.
• Monetary policy was expansionary in the first half of 2010, but tightened in July to reduce inflation and excess liquidity.
• The Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS) depreciated the Sudanese guinea by 19% in November, introducing a daily premium on the official exchange rate to align with the parallel market.

2. Fiscal Policy

• The 2011 budget reflects efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit, with non-oil primary balance improving.
• Current expenditure was compressed by 2.8% of GDP, while capital outlays are projected to increase to 3.3% of GDP.
• Tax reforms are being implemented, including broadening the tax base and improving revenue administration.
• VAT exemptions are to be reduced, and personal income tax is to be reformed.
• Non-oil revenue is a key focus to reduce dependence on oil and maintain macroeconomic stability.

3. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• The authorities plan to maintain a tight monetary stance to address inflation and exchange rate pressures.
• The CBOS has withdrawn liquidity and is deepening open market operations.
• Exchange rate flexibility is recommended to rebuild foreign exchange reserves and improve transparency.
• Fiscal measures to curb foreign currency demand (e.g., higher tariffs, development tax) are likely to cause price distortions and may not achieve intended goals.

4. External Debt and Creditors

• Sudan’s external debt obligations increased in 2010, reaching $36.2 billion by September, with $30.5 billion in arrears.
• Non-concessional borrowing is limited and tied to specific projects.
• A Technical Working Group on Debt (TWG) was established to assess debt relief options and facilitate arrears clearance.
• Comprehensive debt relief is essential to achieve external debt sustainability.

5. Performance Under the 2009–10 SMP

• The 2009–10 SMP met most quantitative targets, with three missed (NIR accumulation, domestic financing, and arrears clearance).
• Structural benchmarks were met, though with delays.
• Payments to the IMF exceeded the minimum commitment.
• The program was considered to meet upper-credit tranche conditionality standards, except for non-concessional borrowing.

6. Implications of South Sudan Independence

• The independence of South Sudan could lead to a 75% decline in oil revenues for the North, causing domestic and external imbalances.
• The fiscal deficit may widen, but transfers to the South would decrease.
• Current account deficit could deteriorate due to declining oil exports.
• The authorities are preparing for the macroeconomic consequences of independence by evaluating alternative scenarios.

Key Information

• Date of Review: Discussions concluded on December 14, 2010, and the staff report was finalized on January 24, 2011.
• Staff Recommendations:
  • Tighten monetary policy to control inflation and exchange rate pressures.
  • Increase exchange rate flexibility to rebuild foreign exchange reserves.
  • Enhance non-oil revenue and streamline expenditures.
  • Strengthen the financial sector, including banking supervision and Omdurman National Bank restructuring.
  • Initiate dialogue with creditors to support arrears clearance and debt relief.
• Challenges for South Sudan:
  • One of the poorest regions globally, with limited infrastructure and weak institutions.
  • Relies heavily on oil revenue (about 98% of government income).
  • Requires substantial international assistance for development and capacity building.
• Political Context:
  • The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) established a 6-year interim period for the referendum.
  • The referendum was held on January 9–15, 2011, with results expected in February.
  • The Abyei referendum was postponed due to disagreements on voter eligibility.

Conclusion

The IMF is closely monitoring Sudan’s economic developments and policy responses to the referendum uncertainty and the potential independence of South Sudan. While the 2009–10 SMP has contributed to macroeconomic stability, fiscal and monetary adjustments remain critical. The long-term implications of South Sudan’s independence are complex and significant, necessitating preparatory measures and cooperation with international partners to ensure economic resilience and debt sustainability.