TE-欧洲电动汽车2019-2025（英文）-2019.9-39页_2mb

Summary of "Electric surge: Carmakers' electric car plans across Europe 2019-2025"

Core Content

This report, published by Transport & Environment in July 2019, provides an analysis of the electric vehicle (EV) production plans of major carmakers across Europe from 2019 to 2025. It evaluates whether these plans are sufficient to meet the EU's CO2 emission reduction targets and discusses the implications for the automotive industry, battery manufacturing, and policy development.

Main Points

• Electric Vehicles Going Mainstream: The EV market in Europe is expected to transition from a niche to a mainstream segment, with a significant increase in the number of EV models available by 2025.

• Market Share and Production Growth:

  • The number of EV models in Europe is projected to increase from 60 in 2018 to 333 in 2025.
  • EV production in the EU is expected to grow six-fold between 2019 and 2025, reaching over 4 million vehicles.
  • EVs are expected to account for 22% of total EU vehicle production by 2025, up from 4% in 2019.

• Technology Shift:

  • Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will dominate the EV market, expected to make up 60% of total EV production in 2025.
  • Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) will be a smaller share, with a declining growth rate compared to BEVs.
  • Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) and natural gas vehicles (CNG) will play a negligible role, with only 9,000 FCEVs and 200,000 CNG vehicles expected in 2025.

• Major OEMs and Production Plans:

  • The Volkswagen Group is projected to be the largest producer of EVs in Europe, expected to produce over 1 million BEVs and 300,000 PHEVs by 2025.
  • PSA is expected to be the largest PHEV manufacturer with around 350,000 units.
  • Daimler and Renault-Nissan are also major contributors to EV production, with 11% and 10% shares respectively.
  • Together, these four OEMs are expected to account for two-thirds of all EV production in Europe by 2025.

• Battery Production in the EU:

  • The EU is expected to have sufficient battery production capacity by 2023, with 131 GWh of capacity confirmed.
  • Battery manufacturing is anticipated to create over 120,000 jobs in 2023 and up to 250,000 jobs in 2028.
  • The majority of battery production will be in Western Europe, with Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary having the highest per capita production rates.

• CO2 Compliance and Policy Recommendations:

  • The EU's CO2 emission targets for 2025 and 2030 require a 15% and 37.5% reduction in emissions from new cars compared to 2021 levels.
  • The report emphasizes the need for policy reforms to support the transition to electric mobility, including:
    • Reforming national and corporate fleet taxation to encourage EV adoption.
    • Developing a unified EU recharging infrastructure plan.
    • Implementing a phase-out of conventional ICE vehicles by 2035.

• Challenges and Uncertainties:

  • The transition to electromobility is not guaranteed and could be affected by policy changes, economic factors, or shifts in corporate strategy.
  • The report highlights the importance of the incoming EU Commission in driving the transition through strategic funding, regulation, and infrastructure development.

Key Information

• EV Market Growth: EV production is expected to surge to over 4 million units in 2025, which is more than a fifth of the EU's total vehicle production.

• Model Availability:

  • BEV models are expected to increase from 60 in 2018 to 172 in 2025.
  • PHEV models are expected to increase from 55 in 2019 to 100 in 2020, with a slower growth thereafter.
  • FCEV models will remain low, with only 14 models expected in 2025.

• Production Locations:

  • Western Europe (Germany, France, Spain, Italy) will be the primary production regions.
  • Central and Eastern Europe (Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary) will also see significant EV production, with high per capita rates.

• Job Creation:

  • Battery manufacturing is expected to create around 120,000 jobs in 2023 and 250,000 jobs in 2028.
  • The growth of the EV market is anticipated to lead to substantial employment opportunities in the EU.

• Policy Implications:

  • The report calls for urgent action to reform taxation and support EV adoption.
  • A strong EU-wide policy framework is needed to ensure the success of the transition to electric mobility.
  • The EU Commission is urged to take a leading role in this transformation.

Conclusion

The report underscores the significant shift in the European automotive industry towards electric vehicles, driven by regulatory and environmental pressures. While the current plans of major OEMs suggest a viable path towards meeting CO2 targets, the report highlights the need for supportive policies, infrastructure development, and strategic investment to ensure the transition is successful and sustainable.