2025-05-15-Jefferies-欧洲纯电动汽车追踪-_4月纯电动汽车销量增长27_；大众_斯特兰蒂斯_福特表现突出_9页_260kb

Europe Autos & Auto Parts: Equity Research - BEV Tracker (April 2025)

Key Findings & Market Overview:

• European BEV registrations in April 2025 were +27% year-over-year with market penetration increasing by 3.8 percentage points.
• Compliance with EU CO2 regulations is a key driver for BEV sales; a new regulation allows manufacturers to average emissions over three years (2025-2027), easing near-term pressure.
• BEV penetration benchmarks remain around +5-7 percentage points year-over-year to meet fleet emission reduction targets.
• Overall BEV market penetration in April was 17.1%, up 3.8pp year-over-year.

Market Share Changes (April 2025 vs. April 2024 YoY +/- pp):

• VW gained a significant +10.2pp share in April (totaling 34.5%) and remains a market leader.
• Tesla faced significant share loss (-5.3pp in April/-8.7pp YTD), followed by Volvo (-5.0pp), Mercedes-Benz (-4.1pp), and SAIC (-2.4pp).
• Other performers: Renault (+2.2pp), BYD (+1.6pp), and Ford (+2.6pp).
• STLA saw its best monthly performance (+4.0pp share gain) but remains a work in progress.

BEV Penetration Rate (Own Sales, April 2025 vs. 2024 YoY +/- pp):

• VW saw its highest performance year-to-date with a +8.9pp YoY increase in penetration.
• Ford increased its penetration by +6.2pp
• STLA significantly increased its share
• BYD, SAIC, and Volvo saw substantial declines, potentially offsetting with plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales.

OEM Specific Compliance Notes:

• Mercedes has started 2025 struggling, losing -5.5pp YoY in penetration and -4.1pp in April market share gain.

Regulation Update:

• EU CO2 compliance rules changed to a 3-year period to ease pressure.

Investment & Ratings Snippets:

• JEF Equity Research ratings include: VW (BUY), Ford (UNDERPERFORM), BYD (BUY), Tesla (HOLD), Mercedes (HOLD), etc.
• Distribution, Holdings, and valuation metrics mentioned.

Disclaimer:
Analysis is for Jefferies clients only. Disclosure information on pages 4-9. Analyst certifications included.