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Nordic EV Outlook 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Nordic EV Outlook 2018 provides an in-depth analysis of the electric vehicle (EV) market and related infrastructure in the Nordic region, highlighting the region's leadership in electric mobility and the policies that have driven its success.

Main Areas of Focus

• Electric car market: Trends in sales, stock, and market share across the Nordic countries.
• Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE): Development and deployment of charging infrastructure.
• Power grid implications: Impact of EVs on electricity demand and grid management.
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: Reduction potential of EVs in the Nordic context.
• Policy and market outlook: Future plans and strategies for EV deployment up to 2030.

Key Points

Electric Car Market in the Nordic Region

• Electric car stock has been growing steadily since 2010, reaching ~250,000 units by 2017.
• The Nordic region holds ~8% of the global EV stock in 2016 and has the highest ratio of electric cars per capita globally.
• In 2017, ~90,000 new EVs were sold, marking a 57% increase from the previous year.
• The average market share of EVs in the Nordic region is ~10.6%, with Norway leading at 39%.
• The region ranks third globally in EV sales volume after China and the United States.

Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE)

• In 2017, the Nordic region had ~264,000 EVSE outlets, with ~16,000 publicly accessible.
• Over 94% of all EVSE outlets are installed at homes or workplaces.
• Home charging is the preferred method among consumers, with public charging seen as essential for interregional access and for those without private parking.

Power Grid Implications

• EVs account for less than 1% of total electricity demand in the Nordic region.
• The strong and resilient Nordic power grid has not experienced significant issues such as overloads or transformer damage due to EV demand.
• Demand-side management and dynamic pricing are key strategies to support grid stability and integrate renewable energy sources.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• EVs in the Nordic region have a significant climate mitigation potential due to:
  • Better efficiency compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
  • Low-carbon electricity generation.
  • Continued policy efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of the power supply.
• By 2030, 4 million EVs are projected to be on the road, leading to ~0.2 MtCO₂·eq emissions, which is 40 times less than emissions from the same number of ICE vehicles.

Policy Drivers

• Purchase incentives, circulation tax reductions, and local measures (e.g., free parking, bus lane access) are key drivers of EV adoption.
• Norway's stable policy framework has been crucial to its success in EV adoption.
• Denmark experienced a decline in EV sales in 2017 due to policy shifts in vehicle registration taxes.
• Consumer response to policy incentives is strong, particularly in Norway, where BEVs are more preferred than PHEVs.
• Fleet adoption plays a significant role in EV growth, especially in professional and public sectors.

Market and Policy Outlook to 2030

• The electric car stock is projected to reach 4 million units by 2030, a 15-fold increase from 2017 levels.
• Norway and Sweden are expected to account for ~80% of the total EV stock in 2030.
• The electric car charging infrastructure is projected to reach ~290,000 publicly accessible outlets by 2030.
• Charging infrastructure development will be influenced by the EVSE per car ratio, with projections ranging from 210,000 to 400,000.
• Decarbonisation goals and EV deployment targets will require a transition from economic incentives to regulatory measures.
• Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) and road pricing are expected to help offset declining fuel tax revenues and support sustainable EV growth.

Key Implications

• The Nordic experience demonstrates the importance of policy consistency, economic incentives, and infrastructure development.
• EVSE business models and charging prices vary across the region, but public charging is essential for broader access.
• Regulatory support and international collaboration (e.g., EU and EVI) are vital for achieving long-term EV goals.
• The Nordic region's leadership in EV adoption offers valuable lessons for other regions seeking to develop similar strategies.

Supporting Organizations

• IEA (International Energy Agency): Provides analysis and policy guidance.
• NER (Nordic Energy Research): Supports research and collaboration in energy and transport.
• EV30@30 campaign: Aims to achieve a 30% EV market share by 2030.
• EVI (Electric Vehicles Initiative): A global forum for accelerating EV deployment, with 13 member governments.

Conclusion

The Nordic region is a global leader in electric mobility, driven by strong policy support, consumer preference for BEVs, and effective charging infrastructure. The outlook to 2030 suggests significant growth in both EV stock and charging infrastructure, supported by policy continuity, demand-side management, and international collaboration. The region's low-carbon electricity system and efficiency gains from EVs offer a model for climate mitigation and sustainable transport.