iea-2019年全球电动汽车报告（英文）-2019.9-232页_8mb

Global EV Outlook 2019 Summary

Core Content

The Global EV Outlook 2019 provides an in-depth analysis of the global transition to electric mobility, examining current trends, future projections, and policy implications. The report highlights the rapid growth of electric vehicle (EV) adoption, the role of policy in supporting this transition, and the technological advancements that are driving down costs. It also addresses the challenges and opportunities associated with the expansion of EV markets, including the implications for energy systems, raw material supply chains, and government revenue.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Global EV Growth

• In 2018, the global electric car fleet exceeded 5.1 million, an increase of 2 million from the previous year.
• China remained the world's largest electric car market, followed by Europe and the United States.
• Norway led in electric car market share with 46%.
• The global stock of electric two-wheelers reached 260 million by the end of 2018, with 460,000 electric buses on the road.
• Light commercial vehicles (LCVs) were the most common EVs in freight transport, with 250,000 units in 2018.

2. Electricity and Emissions

• In 2018, EVs consumed 58 TWh of electricity, similar to the total electricity demand of Switzerland in 2017.
• On a well-to-wheel basis, EVs emitted 41 million tonnes of CO₂-equivalent, saving 36 million tonnes compared to an equivalent internal combustion engine (ICE) fleet.
• EVs using low-carbon electricity emit significantly less CO₂ than ICE vehicles. However, in coal-dominated countries, plug-in hybrids may be more efficient than pure EVs.

3. Scenarios for Future Growth

• New Policies Scenario: By 2030, global electric car sales reach 23 million and the stock exceeds 130 million vehicles.
• EV30@30 Scenario: EV sales reach 43 million and the stock is over 250 million vehicles by 2030, with China leading at 57% market share.
• The EV30@30 Campaign aims to achieve 30% market share for EVs by 2030 in all transport modes except two-wheelers.

4. Impact on Oil Demand

• In the New Policies Scenario, EVs would reduce global oil demand by 127 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2030, equivalent to 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d).
• In the EV30@30 Scenario, the reduction is estimated at 4.3 mb/d.

5. Electricity Demand

• Electricity demand to serve EVs is projected to reach 640 TWh in the New Policies Scenario and 1110 TWh in the EV30@30 Scenario by 2030.
• Light-duty vehicles (LDVs) are the largest electricity consumers among EVs.
• Slow chargers account for over 60% of total EV charging demand in both scenarios.

6. Battery and Material Demand

• The expansion of EVs increases demand for battery materials, particularly cobalt and lithium.
• Battery end-of-life management, including second-life applications and recycling, is essential to reduce dependency on critical raw materials.
• Traceability and transparency of supply chains are key to sustainable sourcing of minerals.

7. Policy and Market Frameworks

• Policies play a critical role in the development of electric mobility, including fuel economy standards, incentives, and charging infrastructure support.
• Taxation adjustments are needed to maintain government revenue while promoting EV adoption.
• Location-specific distance-based charges and carbon taxes can support the transition to zero-emissions mobility.

8. Private Sector Involvement

• The private sector is actively responding to policy signals and technological advancements.
• Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are committing to electrifying various transport modes.
• Battery manufacturing is expanding, especially in China and Europe.
• Utilities and charging infrastructure providers are increasing investment in EV charging networks.

Policy Recommendations

• Support for battery technology value chain should be prioritized to ensure sustainability and reduce dependency on raw materials.
• Binding regulatory frameworks are necessary to ensure international cooperation in addressing supply chain and environmental challenges.
• Flexibility services from EVs should be integrated into power systems to support renewable energy integration and reduce system costs.
• Taxation reforms should be implemented to balance revenue loss from declining fuel taxes with revenue from EV taxes.
• Aggregators should be allowed to participate in demand response without facing high transaction costs.
• Battery recycling and reuse should be encouraged under the 3R framework (reduce, reuse, recycle) to manage end-of-life issues and reduce environmental impact.

Conclusion

The Global EV Outlook 2019 presents a positive outlook for the future of electric mobility, driven by policy support, technological innovation, and private sector engagement. It emphasizes the importance of sustainable supply chains, grid integration, and taxation reform to ensure a smooth and equitable transition to electric mobility.