2025-06-04-Jefferies-人头马君度（RCO）_2025财年业绩_风险回报有利_20页_2mb

• Rating & Target: BUY rating with a €70 price target (49% upside) from current share price of €46.92.
• Fiscal 2025 Forecast: Strong organic sales growth in first quarter, but net negative for the year at -1.8% organic sales growth driven by tariff pressures and FX; guidance expects mid-single-digit organic sales growth recovery starting from Q1 2025.
• Fiscal 2026 Forecast: Maintained at -2.1% organic sales growth and -8.4% organic EBIT, but revised EBIT estimate up by 4% (€184m) due to higher 2025 base.
• Tariff Impact: Anticipates a maximum gross impact of €100mn on EBIT from tariffs, with partial offset through operational adjustments, leading to potential mid- to high-teens organic EBIT decline in worst-case scenario.
• Cognac Market: Highly dependent on US and China sales (over 66% combined), both currently weak. The US market faces inventory destocking and competition, with Remy Martin planning to enhance VSOP competitiveness through pricing and marketing.
• Valuation: Current trading at 1.1x inventory (vs 10-year avg of 4x), with a PE of 20.7x for 2026E. Net debt/EBITDA ratio stands at 1.2x.
• Risks: Tariff environment, inventory volatility in China and US, macroeconomic uncertainties. Upside factors include faster margin expansion, regulatory relief, and successful R&D/A&P for growth.
• Sustainability: Companies prioritize ESG through three-prong CSR strategy focusing on terroir preservation, gender equality, and renewable energy use.
• Balance Sheet/Financials: Free cash flow remains positive despite dividends outpacing earnings; FX pressures, cost-management, and tariff mitigation are key financial considerations.

Summary

Rémy Cointreau (RCO FP) - Equity Research by Jefferies

• Key Points: The equity research maintains a BUY rating on Rémy Cointreau with a €70 share price target (49% upside from current €46.92). The company is positioned to benefit from medium-term cognac recovery, driven by the brand's heritage, high barriers to entry, and adaptation to challenging market conditions.

• Financial Projections (FY25-2028):

  • FY25: Organic sales guidance is mixed, reflecting cautious growth outlook due to tariff uncertainty. Worst-case scenario under tariff assumes mid-teens EBIT decline (€167m), while no-tariff scenario projects strong positive EBIT growth.
  • FY26: EBIT and EPS estimates are higher by 4% due to stronger 2025 base, despite ongoing challenges. Margin expansion remains a key driver of upside potential.
  • FY27-28: Margins are expected to reach 21.4%-31.3%, increasing significantly, though top-line growth is cautious.

• Valuation: Shares trade at a 1.1x inventory multiple versus a 10-year average of 4x. Current valuation metrics (20.7x PE for 2026E) suggest potential upside if sentiment improves.

• Risks: Key risks include evolving trade tensions with China and the US, inventory destocking in the US, and global macroeconomic uncertainty. Conversely, upside exists through regulatory relief, margin expansion acceleration, and successful launches of new products.

• Strategic Actions: The company is focusing on enhancing brand equity through targeted promotions and innovation, while seeking strategic partnerships to offset tariff impacts. Adjustments in pricing and investment planning aim to strengthen competitive positioning and long-term value.

This analysis underscores Remy Cointreau's resilience and strategic adaptation amidst a volatile market, positioning it as a potentially undervalued opportunity in the spirits sector.