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Rémy Cointreau SA Summary

Core Content

Rémy Cointreau SA, a European beverages company, reported its FY25 earnings, showing a small beat against expectations but facing significant challenges due to macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs. The company's financial performance and valuation metrics are analyzed to provide an investment outlook.

Key Financial Performance

• FY25 Sales: €985 million, representing an organic decline of 18%, slightly better than the expected 18% and in line with the consensus.
• Current Operating Profit (COP): €217 million, slightly above expectations (€214 million) and in line with the Bernstein estimate (€218 million).
• Organic COP Decline: -30.5%, slightly better than the consensus (-31.7%) and in line with the Bernstein estimate (-30.3%).
• Gross Margins: Resilient at 70.6%, despite high input costs and unfavorable price-mix, with a margin contraction of -3.5pp.
• Adjusted Net Profit: €128 million, 3.4% above consensus and in line with the Bernstein estimate.
• Price Target: €80.00, with an upside of 71% from the current closing price of €46.92.
• Valuation Metrics:
  • Adjusted P/E (NTM+1): 19.0x
  • EV/Sales: 3.1x
  • EV/EBIT: 14.2x
  • Net Debt/EBITDA: 2.3x (FY25), with an expected increase to 2.14x in FY26.

Divisional Performance

• Cognac: Profits declined by -32.4%, in line with consensus, but below Bernstein's expectations of -29.7%. This was attributed to lower sales, high production costs, and unfavorable price-mix.
• Liqueurs & Spirits (L&S): Organic COP growth of -10.5%, better than expected (Bernstein estimated -19%, consensus -16%).
• Group Brands: Organic COP growth of -28.5%, slightly better than the consensus of -29.2%.
• Partner Brands: No significant data provided.

Guidance for FY26

• Organic Sales Growth: Expected to be +MSD%, driven by a likely rebound in the US and China.
• Organic COP Growth: Estimated at HSD to low DD% (excluding tariffs), but with tariff impacts from China (38%) and the US (20%) included, the guidance is -mid/high teens%.
• FX Impact: Expected to be -€30 to 35m on sales and -€10 to 15m on COP, with Bernstein's estimate at -€12m.
• Long-term Guidance: Withdrawn due to macroeconomic uncertainties, especially around tariffs and US recovery.

Investment Implications

• Rating: Outperform, based on attractive valuation and positive long-term outlook for Cognac.
• Risks:
  • Delayed recovery in China
  • Weak US underlying trends
  • Elevated inventories in both the US and China
• Valuation Methodology: Based on P/E NTM+1 at a target multiple of 25.7x, leading to a €80 price target.

Rating Definitions

• Outperform: Stock will outpace the relevant index by more than 15 pp.
• Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within ±15 pp.
• Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• The report is prepared by Bernstein Institutional Services LLC and Autonomous brands, with separate branding and regulatory compliance.
• Conflicts of Interest:
  • Compensation from Rémy Cointreau SA.
  • Certain affiliates act as market makers or liquidity providers.
• Distribution Restrictions:
  • For US, Canada, UK, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, India, and Brazil.
  • Not for retail investors in certain regions.
  • Legal compliance with MAR, FINRA, SFC, and local regulations.

Analyst Information

• Analysts: Trevor Stirling, Nadine Sarwat, Matthew Cheung, and Alix Turner.
• Contact Details:
  • Trevor Stirling: +442076767521, trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.com
  • Nadine Sarwat: +442076766849, madine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com
  • Matthew Cheung: +442076766809, matthew.cheung@bernsteinsg.com
  • Alix Turner: +44 207 762 4044, alix.turner@berneinstsg.com

Summary Table

Metric	FY24A	FY25E	FY26E	CAGR
Adjusted EPS (EUR)	3.81	2.48	2.47	(19.5)%
Revenues (M)	1,194	985	1,042	(6.6)%
EBIT (M)	304.40	217.81	225.96	(13.8)%
Net Debt/EBITDA (x)	1.7	2.4	2.3	+6.4%
Adjusted P/E (x)	12.3	18.9	19.0	-
EV/Sales (x)	2.6	3.1	3.0	-
EV/EBIT (x)	10.2	14.2	13.7	-
EV/FCF (x)	227.3	17.3	262.9	-

Key Viewpoints

• The company's short-term performance is uncertain due to tariff risks and economic volatility.
• Cognac is seen as not structurally impaired, despite a significant decline in profits.
• The valuation is considered attractive, supporting the Outperform rating.
• The long-term guidance is withdrawn, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the global economy and tariff impacts.