2025-06-04-Jefferies-美元树（DLTR）_第一季度业绩超预期_财年指引基本不变_7页_104kb

Dollar Tree (DLTR) Q1 Performance Summary

Dollar Tree reported Q1 results exceeding market expectations, driven by a 5.4% year-over-year (YoY) sales increase, attributed primarily to broad-based strength in both average transaction value and customer traffic. The comp sales growth was fueled by a 2.5% increase in transactions and a 2.8% rise in average ticket. This performance surpassed both consensus (3.9%) and company guidance range expectations (3-5%).

Key Points:

• Q1 Performance:

  • Consumables (49% of revenue) grew by 6.4%, while discretionary sales (46%) increased by 4.6%.
  • The company gained significant market share, particularly from customers spending over $100K annually.
  • The stock remains within a 52-week range of $60.49 to $121.92, with a current price target of $90.97.

• Q2 Outlook:
  DLTR anticipates lower-than-average annual Q2 earnings due to ongoing tariff pressures (inventory acquired during high-tariff periods) and increased wage costs (approximately $40M investment). The company expects Q2 EPS to decline ~45-50% YoY, compared to a previously forecast increase of 5-10%.

• Adjusted Margin & EPS:
  Adjusted operating margins worsened by 110 basis points YoY due to SG&A expenses, though gross margins expanded 20 basis points from reduced distribution and markdown costs. Q1 EPS of $1.26 beat consensus ($1.21). The company's stock buyback programs contributed $437M in Q1, with an additional $68M in subsequent purchases.

• FY 2025 Guidance:
  Adjusted the FY guidance range upward to $5.15–$5.65 (EPS) due to buybacks, which are expected to lower share counts. This reflects rising earnings per share and assumes further gross margin expansion and deleverage.

• Analyst Recommendations:
  The company received analyst certifications and the report outlines potential conflicts of interest, including advisory roles in Family Dollar's acquisition.

Additional Details:
The report includes valuation metrics and historical price targets, noting the stock's volatility and current rating restrictions related to certain company engagements.