2025-06-04-Jefferies-科派（CPAY）_绘制财年有机增长图并更新子细分市场构建；燃料_外汇检查_21页_1mb

Company Update

• Rating: BUY with a $375 price target (up ~15% from $326.05).
• Organic Growth: Projected 11% FY25 organic growth driven by strong performance in Brazil (18%) and Gift.
• Risk Factors: North American Fleet growth may decelerate, impacting overall outlook; fuel prices and FX rates under review.

Key Business Segments

1. Vehicle Payments:

   • Overall organic growth accelerates to 8% in FY25.
   • Fleet growth improves significantly due to acceleration in North American Fleet.

2. Brazil:

   • Organic growth slows slightly to 18% in FY25, aided by Zapay & Gringo's strong contribution.

3. Corporate Payments:

   • Growth projects at 18% in FY25, with moderation due to tariff headwinds and comp challenges.

4. Lodging:

   • Organic growth projected to be flat or slight positive in FY25, benefiting from improved comps.

Financial Leverage

• Revenue Guideline: $3,974.6M in FY24; upsized to $4,420.3M in FY25.
• EPS: Target FY2026 EPS of $24.57.
• FX Impact: Current rates provide ~$35M incremental tailwind; fuel prices in line with expectations.

Investment Thesis

• Fleet: North American growth is expected to accelerate by ~800bps in the second half of the year.
• Corporate Payments: Greater mix shifts to this segment boosting organic revenues.

Analyst Notes & Q&A Highlights

• Suspected deceleration risk in NA Fleet growth but alternative paths highlight Brazil's impact.
• Specifically, queries on EV adoption's revenue/margin impact and investment needs for global EV transition.

Sustainability

• Company Target: Assist fleet operators in reducing CO₂ emissions and consolidating data centers.

Please see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.