2025-06-09-花旗集团-人头马君度（RCOP）_人头马君度（RCOP.PA）_模型更新_12页_563kb

Citigroup Research: Buy Recommendation for Rémy Cointreau

Analyst Notes

• Date: June 9, 2025
• Analyst: Simon Hales
• Symbol: RCOP.PA
• Recommendation: BUY with a revised target price of €65 (down from previous €75).

Key Estimate Update

• For FY26E, Citi updates its estimates based on management guidance for mid-to-high teens organic EBIT growth of 16.6%, aligning with management expectations.
• US and China tariff impacts are forecast at €40m and €60m, respectively, with management able to mitigate ~35%, leaving a net impact of €65m on EBIT.
• As a result, FY26E EPS is expected to decline by 21% year-on-year, reflecting higher finance/tax charges.

Growth and Financial Projections

• Revenue from €985m in 2025A to €1,123m in 2028E, showing modest growth.
• Net Income is expected to drop from €128m in 2025E to €119m in 2026E, with a shift in valuation ratios (e.g., PE multiples rising from 18.9x to 28.9x in 2026E).
• Near-term catalysts remain limited due to unresolved anti-dumping tariffs and ongoing China market concerns, but long-term structural value is emphasized.

Risks

• High dependence on cognac and key markets (US, China, each contributing ~35-30% to EBIT); a downturn in cognac demand could significantly impact profits.
• China market recovery is uncertain, with potential for growth deviations from expectations.
• FX exposure and regulatory risks (e.g., excise tax changes, anti-alcohol laws) could affect performance.

Valuation

• Target price of €65 is based on a discounted cash flow analysis and a P/E multiple, assuming improving margins and ROIC over time. A ~40x P/E premium to broader staples is factored in.

Company Overview

• Rémy Cointreau is a premium spirits firm with a strong cognac position and presence in the US and China. The investment thesis hinges on cognac's resilience and the company's ability to return to healthy operating scale growth.