SIPRI-管理非洲之角地区的新外部安全政治地缘政治英文-20194-12页_506kb

Summary of Managing the New External Security Politics of the Horn of Africa Region

Core Content

The Horn of Africa region is experiencing a significant transformation in its external security dynamics due to the increasing involvement of foreign military actors. This shift is driven by both internal and external security challenges, with a growing emphasis on maritime and geopolitical competition. The region has become a strategic node in broader international security frameworks, linking the Middle East, Gulf, and Indo-Pacific regions.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Shift in Security Focus

• Historical Context: Initially, foreign military presence in the Horn was aimed at combating internal threats such as terrorism and piracy.
• Current Drivers: In recent years, geopolitical competition and commercial interests have become the primary motivations for foreign military deployments.
• Security Space: The Horn is now perceived as a multilayered security space, with maritime areas gaining strategic importance.

2. External Militarization of the Horn

• Military Infrastructure: Foreign military bases, ports, airstrips, and logistics hubs have proliferated, especially in Djibouti, Somalia, and the Red Sea.
• Naval Presence: Naval forces from the US, Middle East, and Asia have established permanent or semi-permanent deployments.
• Expanded Roles: Foreign forces are now engaged in a wide range of activities, including counterterrorism, peacekeeping, humanitarian aid, and protecting commercial interests.

3. Rise of Maritime Security

• Counter-Piracy Missions: Since 2008, counter-piracy efforts have significantly increased the focus on maritime security.
• Littoral Significance: Coastal areas have become crucial for supporting naval operations and trade routes.
• Blurred Boundaries: The maritime dimension has blurred traditional security divisions between the Horn, Middle East, and Indo-Pacific.

4. Intermixing of Commercial and Military Interests

• Infrastructure Development: Foreign investment in ports and transport infrastructure has grown alongside military presence.
• Strategic Linkages: Countries like Turkey, China, and the UAE are leading this development, with European nations also increasing their involvement through development finance.

5. Geopolitical Competition

• Indo-Pacific Rivalries: The Horn is increasingly integrated into Indo-Pacific security dynamics, with rising competition between the US, China, and India.
• Middle Eastern Influence: Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have become active players in the Horn, often through proxy support and aid.
• Strategic Concerns: The US and France view China’s growing influence in Djibouti as a threat to African sovereignty and strategic access.

6. Impact on Regional Security Institutions

• Bypassing Regional Frameworks: External military engagement has often bypassed the Horn’s regional security institutions, such as the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
• Fragmentation and Instability: Proxy competition among external actors has contributed to political instability and fragmentation in countries like Somalia and Sudan.

7. Multilateral Cooperation and Peace Efforts

• Code of Conduct: The Djibouti Code of Conduct (2009) and its Jeddah Amendment (2017) have been key instruments in addressing maritime security.
• SHADE Meetings: The Shared Awareness and Deconfliction (SHADE) platform has facilitated coordination among international naval forces.
• Peace Support: Gulf states have played a role in promoting peace, such as supporting the Ethiopia-Eritrea peace process.

8. Priorities for Managing New Security Dynamics

The paper outlines five key priorities for the Horn countries to manage the new external security politics:

• Promoting transparency in military affairs
• Strengthening regional resilience
• Recognizing the role of values in security
• Managing new security geographies
• Improving strategic capacities

Conclusion

The increasing foreign military presence in the Horn of Africa is reshaping the region’s security landscape, driven by geopolitical competition and commercial interests. This militarization poses risks for regional stability and sovereignty, necessitating a more coordinated and transparent approach by the Horn countries to manage these external dynamics effectively.