SIPRI-埃塞俄比亚的转型：对非洲之角和红海地区的启示（英文）-2020.3-30页_337kb

Ethiopia's Transition: Implications for the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Region

I. Core Content

Ethiopia is undergoing a significant political and social transition, which has profound implications for its domestic and regional dynamics. This transition, which began in 2018 under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has reshaped Ethiopia's approach to regional security and foreign relations, particularly in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea region. The report highlights how Ethiopia's internal political changes intersect with the evolving security dynamics in the Gulf and Red Sea, including the growing assertiveness of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the resulting diplomatic rift with Qatar.

The Horn of Africa is defined in the report as a security space that includes Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, the Seychelles, South Sudan, Sudan, and key adjacent maritime areas such as the southern Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Understanding Ethiopia's transition is crucial to analyzing how regional states are responding to external influences and how regional integration might evolve.

II. Main Points

1. Ethiopia's Political Transition

• From EPRDF to EPP: The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) transitioned into the Ethiopian Prosperity Party (EPP) in early 2020, marking a shift from a coalition to a single-party system.
• Internal Dynamics: The EPRDF was dominated by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), but its influence has waned with the rise of Abiy Ahmed, who led the Oromo People's Democratic Organisation (OPDO).
• Protests and Reforms: The 2015–16 protests were a key catalyst for the political shift, leading to the declaration of a state of emergency and the eventual restructuring of the political system.
• Abiy's Leadership: Abiy Ahmed has centralized power, making unilateral decisions on foreign policy and domestic reforms, including rapprochement with Eritrea and the release of political prisoners.

2. Regional Implications

• Eritrea-Ethiopia Rapprochement: Ethiopia and Eritrea have improved relations since 2018, though this has stalled due to unresolved issues.
• Somaliland and Berbera Corridor: Ethiopia's close ties with Somaliland have been reinforced, despite the lack of international recognition.
• Somalia and Federal Politics: Ethiopia's relations with Somalia have been affected by the country's federal politics and the spillover effects into Kenya.
• Blue Nile Basin and GERD: Ethiopia's management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been a major point of contention with Sudan and Egypt.

3. Legal and Institutional Reforms

• Legal Changes: The Abiy administration has introduced legal reforms that reduce the repressive powers of the government, including the abolition of the 'charities and societies proclamation' and the 'anti-terrorism proclamation'.
• Electoral Reforms: A new 'civil society organizations agency proclamation' and draft anti-terrorism legislation have been introduced, with the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) being reconstituted under the leadership of former political prisoner Birtukan Mideksa.
• Election Delays: National and regional elections were postponed from May to August 2020, with local elections potentially held in the same year.

4. Political and Social Challenges

• Identity Politics: The transition has exacerbated identity-based tensions, particularly in the Oromia and Somali regions, leading to increased displacement and conflict.
• Opposition Mobilization: New political movements and opposition parties have emerged, leveraging the protest movement's networks. These include the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (Ezema) and the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC).
• Risks of Violence: The stringent registration requirements for political parties have raised concerns about potential violence, especially in Amhara and western Oromia.

5. Economic Shifts

• Economic Policy: Ethiopia's economic policy, previously focused on export promotion and industrialization, is now shifting towards more liberalization and foreign investment.
• Growth and Development: Ethiopia has seen rapid GDP growth (averaging 11% between 2004–13) and a significant reduction in poverty (from 44% in 2000 to 24% in 2016).
• Infrastructure Expansion: Major investments in infrastructure, including roads, electricity, and education, have been made, with state-owned enterprises playing a central role.

III. Key Information

• EPRDF to EPP: The transition from a coalition to a single party has brought new challenges and opportunities, particularly in terms of political legitimacy and coalition-building.
• Regional Security Dynamics: The assertiveness of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the Red Sea and Gulf regions has had a direct impact on Ethiopia's foreign policy and regional relations.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Ethiopia currently hosts around 3.2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), with 2.6 million displaced by conflict, highlighting the need for effective conflict resolution and humanitarian support.
• Future Outlook: The upcoming national elections in August 2020 will be a critical test of the transition's success, and the report suggests potential entry points for regional stability and cooperation, while acknowledging the associated risks and challenges.

IV. Conclusion

Ethiopia's political and economic transition has far-reaching implications for the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region. The shift from a coalition to a single party, the reconfiguration of regional relations, and the intensification of identity-based conflicts all point to a complex and evolving security landscape. Understanding these dynamics is essential for assessing the future of regional integration and stability in the area.