SIPRI-非洲之角地区的外国军事存在地缘政治英文-20194-32页_1mb

Summary of Foreign Military Presence in the Horn of Africa Region

I. Introduction

The Horn of Africa region has seen a significant increase in foreign military presence since 2001, particularly in the past decade. This includes both land-based and naval facilities, with a notable proliferation of military bases along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The presence of foreign forces in the region reflects a shift from post-Cold War decline to a more active involvement driven by geopolitical, commercial, and military competition. The paper outlines the growing external security dynamics in the Horn, with a focus on national and multilateral missions.

II. Key Players and Their Military Involvement

China

• First major security step: Launched an anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden in 2008.
• Military base in Djibouti: Established in August 2017, this is China’s first overseas military base. It serves as a logistics support base for anti-piracy, peacekeeping, and other operations.
• Facility details: Located south-west of the Doraleh Multipurpose Port, it has exclusive access to a dedicated berth. The base includes barracks, hangars, and naval facilities.
• Capacity: Estimated to accommodate several thousand troops, with expansion including a 450-metre pier.
• Strategic significance: Seen as part of China’s "String of Pearls" strategy to project power in the Indian Ocean and counter India.
• Controversies: Accusations of using lasers to blind US pilots, and concerns over its impact on US military interests in Djibouti.
• Economic ties: Linked to the Ethiopia-Djibouti Railway, Water Pipeline, and the Doraleh Port, which are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Egypt

• Red Sea power: Controls the Suez Canal and has increased military spending to project force into the Horn region.
• Naval operations: Inaugurated a new headquarters in Safaga in 2017 for its southern naval fleet, covering the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
• Support for Yemen: Participates in the Saudi Arabian-led coalition, deploying ships to enforce a naval blockade.
• Modernization: Acquired an amphibious assault ship to strengthen its naval presence in the region.

France

• Long-standing presence: Maintained military facilities in Djibouti since 1883, with the FFDJ (French Forces in Djibouti) being the largest French contingent in Africa.
• Military base: Retains a naval base in Djibouti, which is strategically important for nuclear submarines and supports EU and NATO operations.
• Logistics: Hosts EU Naval Force Atalanta and has a 1450-strong garrison, equipped with helicopters and Mirage jets.
• Geopolitical concerns: French Parliament debated increasing its military commitment in Djibouti in 2018 due to Chinese presence.
• Other locations: Has permanent military forces in the Indian Ocean (Réunion and Mayotte) and the UAE.

Germany

• Participation: Involves in Operation Enduring Freedom (since 2001) and the EU's Operation Atalanta.
• Support role: Maintains a contingent of 30–80 personnel and provides maritime patrol aircraft (P-3C Orion) to support these missions.

India

• Anti-piracy and security missions: Reorganized into seven continuous deployments, three in the western Indian Ocean.
• Military facilities: Established a naval monitoring base in northern Madagascar in 2007 and a coastal radar system in the Seychelles in 2015.
• Joint projects: Agreed with Seychelles to develop a military facility on Assumption Island, with an updated 20-year agreement in 2018.
• Logistics agreements: Has signed agreements with the USA and France for access to their bases in the Indian Ocean.
• Mauritius: Plans to build military facilities on Agalega, including an extended runway and new port.

Japan

• Anti-piracy operations: Committed navy ships and aircraft to the Gulf of Aden since 2009.
• First overseas base: Established a military base in Djibouti in 2011, adjacent to the US base at Camp Lemonnier.
• Expansion: Increased the base size to 12 hectares, with an aircraft apron and hangar.
• Strategic goal: To counter Chinese influence in the region.

Iran

• Naval presence: Aims to increase regional influence and counter Gulf countries by establishing a naval presence in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
• Eritrea agreement: Entered into an agreement with Eritrea in 2008 to establish a naval presence at Assab, but this was later overtaken by a GCC base.
• Operations: Deployed naval forces to the Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including submarines.
• Yemen conflict: Supported Houthi rebels, leading to increased naval activity in the region.

Israel

• Intelligence and monitoring: Maintains a listening post on Mount Soira (Amba Sawara) in Eritrea to monitor Iran’s activities.
• Accusations: Houthi rebels accused Israel of supporting the Saudi Arabian-led coalition in Yemen, suggesting Israeli bases in Eritrea could be targets.

III. Geopolitical and Strategic Implications

• The growing foreign military presence in the Horn of Africa reflects increasing geopolitical competition, particularly between China and the US, as well as China and India.
• The region is becoming a focal point for maritime security, counterterrorism, and economic interests.
• The establishment of permanent bases and logistical hubs has raised concerns about regional stability and sovereignty.
• The Horn is now a critical area for global powers to project influence, with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the southern Red Sea being key points of interest.