SIPRI-非洲之角的水安全与治理（英文）-2020.3-56页_2mb

Water Security and Governance in the Horn of Africa

Core Content

This SIPRI Policy Paper, published in March 2020, examines the interplay between water security, climate change, and regional governance in the Horn of Africa, focusing on the Nile Basin and the Juba-Shabelle Basin. It highlights the region's vulnerability to climate-related security risks and the political challenges that hinder effective water governance and cooperation.

The Horn of Africa, defined as the member states of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), is home to 230 million people, with 80% dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. This makes the region particularly susceptible to climate change impacts such as droughts and floods, which exacerbate existing social, political, and economic challenges. The paper emphasizes the multidimensional nature of these challenges and the need for a regional, multilateral approach to address them.

Main Points

1. Water Security and Climate Change

• Water is a scarce resource that is increasingly under pressure due to rising demand and declining supply.
• Climate change intensifies these pressures, increasing the severity and frequency of droughts and floods.
• These climate-related security risks have domestic and transnational implications, contributing to migration, displacement, and political tensions.
• The Nile and Juba-Shabelle rivers are central to the region's water security and governance challenges.

2. Nile Basin

• The Nile River, with its Blue Nile and White Nile tributaries, is a critical lifeline for Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan.
• The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has become a major point of contention, raising security and political tensions among the three countries.
• The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is an existing framework for cooperation, but regional cooperation remains limited due to national interests and historical distrust.
• Climate change is expected to exacerbate water access issues, leading to increased regional instability.

3. Juba-Shabelle Basin

• The Juba-Shabelle Basin is shared by Ethiopia and Somalia, with limited involvement from Kenya.
• Water access is vital for agriculture, energy, and livelihoods in the region.
• Ethiopia and Somalia have dominant domestic interests in the basin, but no formal bilateral agreements exist for transboundary cooperation.
• Ethiopia's role in Somalia's civil war and state-building has further complicated regional relations.
• Climate change is expected to negatively impact water access, with consequences for security in Somalia.

4. Political Constraints and Entry Points

• Weak state institutions and historical distrust among countries are major constraints to effective water governance and climate security.
• National agendas and ambitions often impede regional cooperation.
• The paper outlines three key entry points for the international community to support regional action:
  • Shift the narrative from competition and tension to shared problems and solutions.
  • Develop transboundary diagnostic analysis and strategic action programmes to improve data sharing and policy coordination.
  • Establish a new institutional architecture to better manage water resources and climate security in the region.

Key Information

• The Horn of Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its arid and semi-arid climate, population growth, and economic reliance on agriculture.
• Foreign military presence, especially from Gulf states and Western countries, has increased in recent years, affecting regional security dynamics.
• Maritime security is a growing concern, with foreign navies and ports playing a key role in economic and geopolitical strategies.
• Ethiopia and South Sudan are landlocked states that rely on neighboring countries for maritime access.
• Regional cooperation is possible through existing multilateral organizations such as the African Union (AU) and the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI).

Conclusion

The paper underscores the critical importance of water security and climate governance in the Horn of Africa, emphasizing that these issues are not purely technical but deeply political. It calls for a shift in regional narratives, improved data sharing, and new institutional frameworks to enhance cooperation and prevent conflict. The international community is encouraged to engage more actively in multilateral efforts to address the compounding challenges of climate change and water insecurity in the region.