2025-06-13-Jefferies-InPost（INPST）_低地地区亮点_7页_440kb

报告摘要

Highlights and Key Insights:

InPost is well-positioned to increase its UK market share following the acquisition of Yodel; the English High Court dismissed injunctions, facilitating integration. Yodel's transformation continues, with EBITDA margin stabilizing around 47%. New BEV registrations grew by 27% year-over-year in May, supporting BEV market expansion.
BEV market analysis shows strong year-to-date growth with penetration increasing to 18.5% in May 2025, compared to 14.8% in 2024, while the overall car market increased by 2%.
Arcadis and Fugro highlight Sector M&A activities: Arcadis acquired UK consultancy Ricardo for 9.4x FY24 EBITDA, while Fugro expanded geotechnical lab capacity in APAC by 20%.
Valuation metrics and ratings focus on Buy/Hold recommendations for Benelux midcaps, with key companies like InPost (Buy) showing attractive upside potential from home and fast charging cost efficiencies.
The Jefferies Benelux Mid-Cap Tour scheduled for Sept 30 and Oct 1 in the Netherlands includes visits to Arcadis, Fugro, InPost, TKH Group, and other Dutch mid-caps, emphasizing analyst engagement.

Valuation and Risks:

Benelux midcaps exhibit strong growth/value metrics, with a 55.7% upside target for InPost and similar potential for Arcadis, Azelis, and DEME Group, based on discounted cash flow and market multiples.
Key risks include regulatory conflicts, currency fluctuations, and market volatility, with disclosures noting potential biases from compensation structures tied to investment banking deals. Home share Acquisition Yodel integration is ongoing, supporting InPost's EBITDA margin development and market penetration.

Event Summary:

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