2025-06-12-Jefferies-InPost（INPST）_初步观点_持续推进Yodel重组与转型计划_8页_120kb

报告摘要

InPost Equity Research Summary

Company Overview

InPost S.A. is a leading European e-commerce enabler with a strong presence in Poland and expanding international operations. The report focuses on InPost's acquisition and restructuring of Yodel, part of its strategy to grow in the UK market.

Key Developments

The English High Court dismissed an injunction against Yodel, allowing InPost to continue restructuring and implementing transformation plans.
InPost targets a break-even result for Yodel on a run-rate basis by fiscal year 2025, with improved EBITDA margins through depot rationalization, overhead reduction, and operational leverage.
Yodel's profitability is expected to decrease UK profitability to ~12% in FY25, with medium-term EBITDA margins rising to the high-20s due to increased B2C focus and integration.

Strategic Rationale

The Yodel acquisition accelerates InPost's UK expansion, securing a ~3rd market position with 8% market share and enhancing its Out-of-Home segment (50% share in fast-growing B2C deliveries).
InPost gains access to ~500 B2C merchants, shifting revenue mix toward B2C (>60% of revenue) and improving its competitive edge in convenience delivery.

Financial Projections and Valuation

Analyst rating: BUY with a €22.00 price target, up from €14.34, based on a DCF model assuming long-term EBITDA margins of 40% in Poland and 25% internationally.
Key risks include potential customer insourcing by major clients like Allegro, slower APM adoption in Western Europe compared to Poland, and M&A integration challenges post-acquisition.

Analyst Views

Price target history shows steady increases, reflecting confidence in InPost's growth trajectory.
Downside risks emphasize competition and execution challenges, while upside potential stems from successful integration and market share gains.

Risks

M&A integration risk: Yodel is still loss-making in some periods but targeted for improvement.
Market risks:Lower APM adoption in Western Europe could delay margin improvements.

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