2018年-数据局_普华永道：第21期全球CEO调研报告运筹帷幄的谨慎乐观者_32页_1mb

PwC's 21st CEO Survey Summary

Core Content

PwC's 21st CEO Survey highlights a generally optimistic outlook among global CEOs regarding the short-term economic growth prospects, despite various global challenges. The survey reveals a significant increase in optimism compared to previous years, with the majority of CEOs believing that global economic growth will improve over the next 12 months. However, this optimism does not fully translate into confidence about their own organisation's growth, particularly in regions outside North America.

Main Points

• Global Optimism:

  • The survey shows the highest level of CEO optimism for global growth in the survey's history.
  • The percentage of CEOs predicting 'improved' growth doubled from the previous year.
  • This optimism is consistent across all regions, including North America, Latin America, Western Europe, CEE, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific.

• Organisational Confidence:

  • CEOs are more cautious about their own organisation's growth prospects over the next three years.
  • North America is the only region where a majority of CEOs express 'very confident' about their organisation's revenue growth in the next 12 months.
  • In other regions, confidence levels are more subdued, with some reporting near-record lows in 'very confident' responses.

• Growth Drivers:

  • Organic growth is the most cited driver by CEOs, followed by M&A and cost reduction.
  • North American CEOs are more likely to cite M&A as a growth driver (61%) compared to the global average (42%).

• Top Growth Markets:

  • The US remains the top growth market globally, with 46% of CEOs citing it as one of the three most important countries.
  • China is second at 33%, followed by Germany at 20%.
  • India moves into the top 5, surpassing Japan.
  • Russia re-enters the top 10, and Canada overtakes Mexico in importance.

Key Threats

• Regional Variations in Concerns:

  • CEOs report different levels of concern depending on their region.
  • Cyber threats are the top concern in North America, while 'availability of key skills' is the top threat in Asia-Pacific and CEE.
  • 'Social instability' is a consistent top 10 threat in emerging economies such as Latin America, CEE, the Middle East, and Africa.
  • 'Protectionism' is a top 10 threat in North America, Western Europe, and Asia-Pacific, but not in emerging economies.

• Common Threats Across All Regions:

  • 'Geopolitical uncertainty', 'over-regulation', and 'increasing tax burden' are top concerns in all regions.
  • 'Speed of technological change' and 'availability of key skills' are also prominent across most regions, except Latin America and Africa respectively.
  • Terrorism is a top five threat in all regions except Africa.

• AI and Technological Change:

  • AI is becoming a major concern for CEOs, with anxiety about its potential to disrupt traditional business models.
  • PwC estimates AI could contribute $15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030, but only if businesses can adapt.
  • CEOs are increasingly worried about the availability of key skills and the speed of technological change.

Global vs. Local Prosperity

• Globalisation's Impact:

  • CEOs have mixed views on the benefits of globalisation.
  • Only 40% believe it has helped close the gap between the rich and the poor.
  • 30% believe it has helped avert climate change and resource scarcity.
  • Over 25% say it has not improved the 'integrity and effectiveness of global tax systems'.

• Fractured World:

  • The global innovation model, based on the free flow of information, money, and talent, is at risk due to rising economic nationalism.
  • Most CEOs believe the world is moving towards a fragmented model with multiple belief systems, regional trading blocs, and increased tax competition.

• Measuring Prosperity:

  • There is a global shift from measuring prosperity through financial metrics (e.g., GDP) to multifaceted metrics (e.g., quality-of-life indices).
  • Latin America leads in this shift, while North America remains more traditional in its approach.

Conclusion

The survey underscores a growing optimism about global economic growth, yet a more cautious outlook regarding organisational performance. The shift in focus from traditional financial metrics to broader prosperity indicators reflects a changing perspective on how success is measured. At the same time, the rise in societal and geopolitical threats indicates that CEOs are increasingly aware of the complex and uncertain environment in which they operate.