20231127-瑞达期货-天然橡胶市场周报_17页_1mb

报告摘要

Market Recap: Rubber prices declined due to digestion of previous bullish factors. Import rubber prices weakened, influenced by dollar depreciation and weak market sentiment. Trade商 shifted focus to month-end adjustments, with moderate factory inventory builds, leading to a sluggish market atmosphere.
Market Outlook: Southeast Asia's main production season is active, increasing raw material output, while domestic production is slowing down with low inventory levels supporting higher acquisition prices. Qingdao保税 ship库存 showed slight accumulation, while general trade inventory continued to decline slowly. Downstream demand is easing, with tire factories reducing purchases at lower prices.
Strategy Suggestion: Short-term support at 13840 yuan/ton for RU2401 contract; recommended trading in the 13840-14100 yuan/ton range.

Price Movements: Rubber futures主力 contracts fell during the week, with RU down 165% and NR down 148% year-to-date.持仓 analysis showed net empty positions increased, indicating bearish sentiment. The 1-5 month spread for rubber was -190 yuan/ton. Total仓单 decreased by 11,754 tons, possibly due to withdrawals.

Price Changes: Spot rubber prices declined, with GF全乳胶 down 400 yuan/ton.基差 strengthened by 280 yuan/ton, reflecting a wider spread between futures and spot prices.
20号胶 and Non-Standard Basis: 20号胶基差 improved by 102 yuan/ton; non-standard basis strengthened by 115 yuan/ton. Raw material prices in Thailand varied, with加工利润 improving for烟片胶 and标胶.

Domestic Production Areas: Yunnan saw a 100 yuan/ton increase in胶水 price, while Hainan experienced a 400 yuan/ton decrease. Import data showed a 72.2% drop in October rubber imports by volume, with a slight price increase; cumulative imports year-to-date increased significantly.
Thailand Market: Raw latex and cuplooms prices fluctuated, with加工利润 rising for烟片胶 (+137 USD/ton) and标胶 (+237 USD/ton).

Qingdao Inventory: Total库存 dropped 1.27%, with保税区 increasing slightly and general trade declining sharply.入库率 and出库率 changes indicate mixed market activity.

Tire Production: Full steel tire utilization rate edged down 0.14 points year-to-year, affected by slow sales and rising inventory. Semi-steel tires remained stable, but overall内销压力 increased.
Export Demand: Rubber exports in October fell 6.03% month-over-month but surged year-to-year, with strong heavy truck sales supporting demand. Heavy trucks sold 770,000 units in October, driven by growth in commercial vehicle demand.

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