20220317-招银国际-特步国际-01368.HK-Robust_retail_sales_growth_despite_pandemic_7页_780kb

报告摘要

Xtep (1368 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

Xtep (1368 HK) has demonstrated robust retail sales growth in the first quarter of 2022, even amidst the challenges posed by the pandemic and macroeconomic weakness. The company's strong performance is attributed to its mass market pricing strategy, significant exposure to street-level stores, and lower-tier cities. Despite the recent market crash, the company's valuation remains attractive at 18x FY22E P/E, prompting the maintenance of a BUY rating with a revised target price of HK$16.21, indicating a +62.1% upside from the current price of HK$10.00.

Key Financial Highlights

FY21 Performance

Revenue: RMB 10.0bn, inline with BBG estimates
Net Profit: RMB 908mn, a 77% YoY increase, only 3% above BBG estimates
Cash Conversion Cycle: Reduced to 64 days (from 87 days last year)
Provision Write Back: Approximately RMB 21mn, signaling healthy business conditions

FY22E Guidance

Core Brand Sales Growth: Expected to be 25–30%, with 35–45% in 1H22E
Kids Segment: Projected to grow at 50%+
E-commerce: Expected to grow at 30%+
NP Margin: Targeted at ~12%

Sales Growth Drivers

Offline Sales: Driven by the expansion of 9th gen. stores (sales per store up to RMB 300K–500K per month) and product upgrades
Kids Segment: Anticipates ~200 new stores in FY22E
E-commerce: Growth supported by platforms like JD, TikTok, and Xiaohongshu

New Brands Performance

K-Swiss and Palladium: Revised sales growth target to 20–30% (down from 30%+) due to lingering supply chain issues in Southeast Asia, but net losses remain at ~RMB 90mn–100mn
Break-even Target: By FY24E
Saucony and Merrell JV: Maintained 50% sales growth target, with net losses not exceeding RMB 50mn, and break-even expected by FY23E

Valuation and Target Price

Target Price: HK$16.21 (down from HK$16.43)
Valuation Method: SOTP (Sum of the Parts) with a 24x FY22E P/E for Xstep core brand, 1.4x FY22E P/S for K&P, and 2.0x FY22E P/S for JV
Group Valuation: Implies ~28x FY22E P/E, which is considered reasonable given the 26% NP CAGR in FY21–FY24E

Financial Summary

Revenue

FY20A: RMB 8,172mn
FY21A: RMB 10,013mn
FY22E: RMB 12,568mn
FY23E: RMB 14,587mn
FY24E: RMB 16,430mn

Net Profit

FY20A: RMB 513mn
FY21A: RMB 908mn
FY22E: RMB 1,210mn
FY23E: RMB 1,508mn
FY24E: RMB 1,811mn

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

FY20A: RMB 0.206
FY21A: RMB 0.355
FY22E: RMB 0.475
FY23E: RMB 0.592
FY24E: RMB 0.711

P/E and P/B Ratios

FY20A: 40.8x and 2.9x
FY21A: 23.3x and 2.6x
FY22E: 17.5x and 2.5x
FY23E: 14.0x and 2.3x
FY24E: 11.7x and 2.1x

Yield

FY20A: 1.4%
FY21A: 2.6%
FY22E: 3.4%
FY23E: 4.3%
FY24E: 5.1%

ROE

FY20A: 7.0%
FY21A: 11.4%
FY22E: 14.1%
FY23E: 16.3%
FY24E: 18.0%

Shareholding and Performance

Shareholding Structure

Mr Ding Shui Po & Family: 52.28%
JP Morgan Chase: 4.61%
ICBC Credit Suisse AM: 3.02%
Employee Incentive Scheme: 4.01%
Free Float: 36.08%

Share Performance

1-month: -25.3% (Absolute), -8.0% (Relative)
3-months: -23.0% (Absolute), -10.0% (Relative)
6-months: -24.4% (Absolute), -7.1% (Relative)
12-months: +173.2% (Absolute), +294.8% (Relative)

Earnings Revision

Revenue

FY22E: RMB 12,568mn (up 0.1% from previous estimate)
FY23E: RMB 14,587mn
FY24E: RMB 16,430mn

Gross Profit

FY22E: RMB 5,314mn (up 0.9%)
FY23E: RMB 6,290mn
FY24E: RMB 7,120mn

EBIT

FY22E: RMB 1,806mn (down -2.6%)
FY23E: RMB 2,214mn
FY24E: RMB 2,590mn

Net Profit

FY22E: RMB 1,210mn (up 3.6%)
FY23E: RMB 1,508mn
FY24E: RMB 1,811mn

EPS

FY22E: RMB 0.475 (up 3.6%)
FY23E: RMB 0.592
FY24E: RMB 0.711

Margins

Gross Margin: 42.3% (FY22E), up 0.3ppt from FY21A
EBIT Margin: 14.4% (FY22E), down -0.4ppt
Net Profit Margin: 9.6% (FY22E), up 0.3ppt

Valuation Table

Company	Ticker	Rating	12m TP (HK$)	Price (HK$)	Upside (%)	Mkt Cap (HK$mn)	P/E (x)	P/B (x)	ROE (%)	3yrs PEG (x)	Yield (%)
Xstep Intl	1368 HK	BUY	16.21	10.00	62.1%	26,303	17.5	2.5	12.0	0.7	3.4
Anta Sports	2020 HK	BUY	132.66	99.95	33%	270,198	28.6	7.3	30.5	0.8	1.3
Li Ning	2331 HK	BUY	102.84	57.90	78%	151,498	32.7	9.0	33.2	0.6	0.9
361 Degrees	1361 HK	NR	n/a	3.26	n/a	6,740	9.8	8.7	7.7	0.5	2.3
Topsports	6110 HK	NR	n/a	6.34	n/a	39,316	11.3	9.4	26.5	0.7	4.5
Pou Sheng	3813 HK	NR	n/a	0.76	n/a	4,048	3.9	2.9	4.5	1.8	2.3
China DX	3818 HK	NR	n/a	0.44	n/a	2,561	24.1	18.1	6.9	0.6	1.4

Key Assumptions

Sales by Segment (RMB mn)

Footwear: 5,047 (FY20A), 5,928 (FY21A), 7,497 (FY22E), 8,724 (FY23E), 9,877 (FY24E)
Apparel: 2,964 (FY20A), 3,887 (FY21A), 4,859 (FY22E), 5,637 (FY23E), 6,313 (FY24E)
Accessories: 161 (FY20A), 198 (FY21A), 211 (FY22E), 226 (FY23E), 240 (FY24E)
Total Sales: 8,172 (FY20A), 10,013 (FY21A), 12,568 (FY22E), 14,587 (FY23E), 16,430 (FY24E)

Sales Growth by Segment

Footwear: 8.5% (FY20A), 17.5% (FY21A), 26.5% (FY22E), 16.4% (FY23E), 13.2% (FY24E)
Apparel: -11.4% (FY20A), 31.2% (FY21A), 25.0% (FY22E), 16.0% (FY23E), 12.0% (FY24E)
Accessories: -12.9% (FY20A), 22.5% (FY21A), 7.0% (FY22E), 7.0% (FY23E), 6.0% (FY24E)
Total Sales Growth: -0.1% (FY20A), 22.5% (FY21A), 25.5% (FY22E), 16.1% (FY23E), 12.6% (FY24E)

Conclusion

Xtep is showing strong performance and growth potential, supported by its core brand's robust sales, expansion in the kids segment, and e-commerce development. Despite challenges with new brands due to supply chain issues, the company is on track to break even by FY24E. The revised target price of HK$16.21 suggests a reasonable valuation, with the company's P/E ratio expected to be around 28x for the group, aligning with its historical performance and growth prospects.

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