2024-01-09-工银亚洲-香港金融市场观察年度回顾及展望_年末宽幅震荡静待2024稳步回暖_12页_1mb

Year-End Hong Kong Financial Market Review and 2024 Outlook

Exchange Rate and Liquidity:
2023 saw substantial volatility in the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) exchange rate, ranging between 7.80 and 7.85, with an annual depreciation of 0.02%, narrower than 2022's 0.2%. December 2023 featured mixed movements, with the HKD ending nearly flat amid falling US Dollar Index and narrowing US-Hong Kong interest rates. Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) decreased overall due to lower funding pressures and Fed policy shifts, reflecting improved liquidity in the market.

Secondary Market:
The Hong Kong stock market concluded 2023 with a slight increase (0.03% in December), following a "V-shaped" trajectory but posting a cumulative yearly fall of 13.8%. Key sector performers included utilities and technology. Chinese dollar bonds showed gains, with an annual rise of 4.1%, driven by easing US yields and supportive policies, though valuation remained subdued.

Primary Market:
January-December 2023 experienced low IPO activity, with 68 listings raising HKD 462.9 billion in total, a significant drop from previous years, primarily due to the absence of major new listings. December saw a回暖 in IPOs, with 14 offerings raising HKD 86.2 billion, benefiting small and medium enterprises. In the bond market, yuan-denominated US issuance was minimal in December, with limited activity but relieved by decreased maturing debt.

Outlook:
Short-term prospects are positive, with Fed rate cuts potentially reducing HIBOR and stabilizing currencies. Combined with China's economicImprovement and policy support for capital markets, a synchronized recovery in both fundamentals and valuations is expected in 2024.
Notable uncertainties include geopolitical risks and policy adjustments.