WTO-WTO预测疫情全球经济发展（英文）-2020.4-25页_597kb

WTO Trade Forecast Methodology for April 8, 2020

Core Content

The World Trade Organization (WTO) developed a trade forecast for April 8, 2020, based on three scenarios reflecting different recovery paths from the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. These scenarios—V-shaped, U-shaped, and L-shaped—were constructed due to the uncertainty surrounding the duration of the pandemic and the effectiveness of containment measures.

Main Viewpoints

• Scenario Analysis: The forecast is based on three recovery scenarios:

  • V-shaped: Optimistic, with social distancing measures lasting 3 months, followed by rapid recovery.
  • U-shaped: Less optimistic, with measures lasting 6 months, leading to a slower recovery.
  • L-shaped: Pessimistic, with suppression measures lasting over a year, leading to a prolonged economic downturn.

• Model Used: The WTO Global Trade Model, a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, was used to simulate the GDP and trade impacts of the pandemic. This model was adapted to reflect the unique nature of the crisis, as traditional consensus GDP estimates were not up to date.

• Economic Shocks: Three main types of shocks were applied to the model:

  1. Reduced Labour Supply: Due to illness, mortality, and school closures.
  2. Sectoral Demand and Supply Reductions: Especially in tourism, retail, and manufacturing.
  3. Rising Trade Costs: From increased border controls, air cargo price hikes, and travel restrictions.

• Expert Judgement: Given the lack of updated GDP projections and the complexity of the crisis, expert judgement was essential in shaping the assumptions and scenarios.

Key Information

GDP and Trade Projections

• In the V-shaped scenario, GDP is projected to fall by 5% in 2020 and recover by 4.6% in 2021.
• In the L-shaped scenario, GDP is projected to fall by 11% in 2020 and only recover by 3.3% in 2021.
• Trade is projected to fall by 8% in the V-shaped scenario and 20% in the L-shaped scenario.

Trade-to-GDP Elasticity

• The trade-to-GDP elasticity is expected to be lower in the current crisis compared to the 2008 financial crisis.
• In the L-shaped scenario, the elasticity is 2.1, while during the 2008 crisis it ranged between 4 and 6.
• This difference is attributed to:
  • A more widespread impact on non-tradable sectors.
  • Higher trade costs due to border controls and travel restrictions.
  • The absence of the bullwhip effect, which amplified trade responses in 2008.

Trade Cost Increases

• Trade costs are expected to rise significantly due to:
  • Air cargo price increases: 70% in 2020.
  • Extended transit times: 3 extra days, corresponding to a 2.4% rise in trade costs.
  • Higher service trade costs: 22.5% extra due to travel restrictions.
  • Specialized equipment transport costs: 22.5% extra, scaled by the share of air transport.

Regional and Sectoral Impacts

• Labour Supply Reductions:

  • The largest contributors to reduced labour supply are school closures and working from home.
  • Morbidity and mortality have smaller impacts.
  • The global average reduction in labour supply is 3.86% in the V-shaped scenario.

• Sectoral Demand and Supply:

  • Tourism and recreation are heavily affected, with a -80% drop in the first 3 months.
  • Retail and manufacturing also experience significant declines, with -20% and -40% in the L-shaped scenario.

• Trade Cost Increases by Region and Sector:

  • United States has the highest trade cost increase due to its significant exports of services and specialized equipment.
  • Services trade costs are the primary driver of higher trade costs in most regions.
  • Border controls and specialized equipment transport also contribute significantly.

Model and Data

• The WTO Global Trade Model was used, which is based on the GTAP database.
• The model was aggregated to 16 regions and 21 sectors.
• Fiscal policy was included, with government demand increasing by half of the reduction in private demand.
• Healthcare expenditures were increased by 75% in 2020.

Conclusion

• The simulations highlight the importance of scenario analysis in understanding the economic impact of the pandemic.
• The use of CGE models allows for the study of sectoral linkages and intermediate effects.
• The trade-to-GDP elasticity is expected to be lower than during the financial crisis, due to the different nature of the shocks.
• The L-shaped scenario is considered the most pessimistic, with long-term economic consequences.
• The WTO emphasizes the need for updating the analysis as more information becomes available, particularly regarding the effects on developing and least developed countries.