那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-近期全球经济的反常现象-20180430-6页_597kb

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Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document titled Flash Economics discusses recent anomalies in the global economy, focusing on four key areas that deviate from traditional economic patterns. The analysis is based on data and charts that illustrate the current economic situation and its implications for policy and market behavior.

Main Anomalies

1. Wages and Inflation are Not Rising in a Situation of Full Employment

The global economy is currently at full employment, as shown in Chart 1A.
Despite this, there is no significant acceleration in wages or inflation (Charts 1B and 1C).
This is attributed to a change in the functioning of the labor market, suggesting that traditional wage-inflation dynamics are no longer in effect.

2. Productivity is Not Reacting to Investment

There has been heavy investment, particularly in new technologies (Charts 2A and 2B).
However, productivity gains and technological progress are slowing down (Charts 2C and 2D).
This indicates a challenge in transforming technology into economic value, possibly due to inefficiencies in the implementation or integration of new technologies.

3. Economic Policies Remain Expansionary

Fiscal policy remains expansionary, as shown by fiscal deficits (Chart 3A).
Monetary policy is also expansionary, with low interest rates and high nominal GDP growth (Chart 3B).
Governments and central banks have not fully accepted the idea that the economy is at full employment, continuing to use expansionary measures to stimulate growth.

4. Expansionary Monetary Policy Leads to Asset Price Increases, Not Borrowing Growth

Expansionary monetary policy has led to rising equity valuations and real estate prices (Charts 4A and 4B).
However, there is no significant increase in credit or borrowing (Charts 4C and 4D).
This suggests a shift in how monetary policy affects the economy, with more impact on asset prices than on credit expansion, possibly due to cautious borrowing behavior post-2008 crisis.

Key Information and Main Points

Global potential growth has weakened, leading to continued expansionary policies.
Inflation and borrowing are not responding to full employment, indicating a structural shift in economic dynamics.
Fiscal dominance is likely, where monetary expansion supports fiscal expansion.
Asset prices are rising, but credit growth is not, reflecting a change in monetary transmission.
The 2008-2009 crisis has made borrowers more cautious, which may explain the lack of credit expansion.

Conclusion

The recent economic anomalies suggest that the traditional relationships between employment, inflation, productivity, and credit are no longer consistent. Central banks and governments are maintaining expansionary policies due to a weakening in potential growth and lack of inflationary pressure. This environment may lead to fiscal dominance and increased asset prices, but not necessarily higher borrowing. These trends have important implications for economic policy and market behavior.

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