联合国粮农组织-粮食展望——全球粮食市场双年度报告（英）-2024.6-144页_19mb

Food Outlook Summary

Core Content

The FAO Food Outlook is a biannual report that provides forecasts and analyses of global food markets, including production, trade, utilization, and prices for key commodities such as wheat, coarse grains, rice, meat, sugar, oilcrops, and dairy. It also includes special features on fertilizers and the impact of shipping cost shocks on the food import bill.

Key Findings

Global Food Markets Overview

• Global food production systems remain vulnerable to shocks from extreme weather, geopolitical tensions, policy changes, and market developments.
• Production and stocks are expected to increase for several basic foodstuffs, though prices may remain under pressure due to these factors.

Commodity-Specific Outlooks

Wheat

• Global wheat production is forecast to decline slightly by 0.1% to 787 million tonnes in 2024/25.
• Utilization is expected to fall by 0.8% to 794 million tonnes due to reduced feed and other uses, particularly in China and India.
• World wheat stocks will likely decrease by 1.6% to 307 million tonnes, but the stocks-to-use ratio remains at 38.0%, indicating a comfortable supply.
• Trade is forecast to contract by 1.2% to 198 million tonnes, with declines in China and the EU imports and smaller exports from Russia, Ukraine, and Türkiye.
• Prices are expected to stay below average, reflecting ample supply and strong competition from exporters like Russia.

Coarse Grains

• Production is expected to decline by 0.3% to 1525 million tonnes in 2024.
• Utilization is forecast to increase by 1.0% to 1526 million tonnes, driven by higher feed use of maize and sorghum.
• Stocks are expected to rise by 3.4% to 385 million tonnes, with significant increases in maize stocks in the EU and China.
• Trade is projected to contract by 2.4% to 229.9 million tonnes, with declines in Brazil, Ukraine, and China imports, and reduced exports from Paraguay and South Africa.
• Prices are expected to remain below average, with a bearish tone expected in 2024/25.

Rice

• Production is forecast to increase by 0.9% to 534.9 million tonnes in 2024/25.
• Utilization is expected to rise by 1.2% to 531.4 million tonnes, with stocks increasing by 2.7% to a record 205.1 million tonnes.
• International trade is projected to decline by 3.7% to 53.4 million tonnes, with African countries reducing imports, while Asian countries stabilize and other regions see growth.
• Prices remain elevated, with the FAO All Rice Price Index at 139 points in May 2024, up 11.2% from January/May 2023.

Meat

• Global meat production is expected to expand marginally in 2024, driven by poultry meat growth.
• Trade is anticipated to rebound, as demand exceeds domestic supply in leading importers.
• Prices may remain pressured due to thin profit margins and possible disruptions from weather and disease.

Sugar

• International sugar prices declined significantly in 2023/24 due to improved supply prospects.
• World consumption is forecast to expand above recent trends, supported by lower prices.
• Trade is expected to increase, with ample export availabilities and stronger import demand.

Oilcrops

• Oilseed production is expected to reach a record high of 667.6 million tonnes in 2023/24, driven by soybean and sunflower seed output.
• Oils/fats production is forecast to increase marginally, while consumption growth may outpace this, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance.
• Meals/cakes production is predicted to rise by 2.8%, surpassing utilization recovery, which may result in higher stocks.
• Trade in meals/cakes is expected to increase marginally, possibly hitting a record due to rising feed demand.

Dairy

• World milk production is forecast to reach nearly 979 million tonnes in 2024, up 1.4% from 2023.
• Asia will continue to lead production growth, driven by rising dairy cow numbers and large-scale farms.
• Trade is predicted to recover moderately, despite subdued demand in some countries.

Fishes and Fisheries

• Capture fisheries are expected to remain stable, while aquaculture is projected to expand.
• Prices for some aquatic products are falling due to increased supply and stagnant consumer spending.
• Production costs remain challenging.

Special Features

Focus on Fertilizers

• Fertilizer markets have been affected by economic, environmental, and geopolitical factors.
• Prices rebounded in 2023 due to lower energy costs and increased production.
• The 2024/25 outlook suggests stability, but energy market shocks remain a risk.

Dynamic Effects of Shipping Costs on the Food Import Bill

• Shipping cost disruptions have added pressure to international trade.
• The report analyses how dry bulk and container costs affect net food-importing countries, particularly developing nations.
• Higher shipping costs can increase the import bill, impacting food affordability and security.

Key Data Highlights

• Cereals:

  • Production: 2846 million tonnes in 2024/25, virtually the same as 2023/24.
  • Utilization: 2851 million tonnes, a new record high.
  • Stocks: 897.2 million tonnes, up 1.5%.
  • Trade: 481 million tonnes, down 1.3%.
  • Price Index: 115 points in Jan-May 2024, down 21% from 2023.

• Rice:

  • Production: 534.9 million tonnes in 2024/25.
  • Utilization: 531.4 million tonnes, first expansion in three seasons.
  • Stocks: 205.1 million tonnes, record high.
  • Trade: 53.4 million tonnes, down 3.7%.
  • Price Index: 139 points in Jan-May 2024, up 11.2% from 2023.

• Oilcrops:

  • Production: 667.6 million tonnes in 2023/24.
  • Utilization: Expected to exceed production, leading to lower ending stocks.
  • Meals/cakes: Production growth of 2.8% may outpace utilization, leading to higher stocks.

Conclusion

Despite some declines in production and trade, the global food market is expected to maintain overall comfortable supply levels, with stocks rising for many commodities. However, price volatility and market shocks such as weather, geopolitical tensions, and shipping costs continue to pose risks. The report highlights the importance of monitoring these factors to ensure global food security and market stability.