20240308-招银国际-普拉达-01913.HK-4Q23_cFX_revenue_+18__Miu_Miu_overshot_6页_1mb

报告摘要

[Based on data from CMB International Global Markets, dated 8 March 2024]

4Q23 Performance:
- Net revenue (FX) increased by 18% year-over-year.
- MiuMiu exceeded analyst consensus, driving 181% FX growth.
- All regions showed strong performance: Japan (+38% FX), APAC (+32% FX), and the US maintained sequential improvement.
Financial Improvements:
- Gross Profit Margin reached 80.8% for the period.
- EBIT margin improved, contributing to a 0.9 percentage point increase in net margin.

Action: BUY, with a target price of HK$652 (up 17.1% from current price of HK$557).
Rationale: Prada is expected to outperform peers in 2024 due to sustained A&I investment and price hikes (~4-8% annual), supporting margin expansion.

Sales Momentum: Year-to-date sales (including CNY period) aligned with 4Q23 growth (FX +181%), suggesting continued market share gains.
Strategic Initiatives: Outlet stores (contribute ~10% to sales) will be fully phased out over the next 2-3 years. Routine price increases focus on clothing and leather goods.
Market Position: Prada benefits from recovered tourism in key regions like China (back to ~70% of 2019 levels) and Japan, with the US emerging as a new growth engine.

P/E Ratios: Predicted to range from 20.6x to 18.9x by 2026, remaining lower than global peers.
EBIT Margin Caution: Despite lower short-term margins compared to peers due to strategic reinvestment, the strategy proved successful in 2023.
Target Price: Issue: HK$652; previous: HK$645.

Recommendations are based on DCF models and assume 99% WACC, 2% long-term growth.
Risks include normalized consumption in developed markets and potential deviations from forecasts.

[End of Summary]

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