20231101-招银国际-普拉达-01913.HK-3Q_reported_cFX_rev_+3_+10__Miu_Miu_+48__6页_1mb

报告摘要

3Q Results: Reported revenue growth of 3% on a constant FX basis and 10% on an EUR basis, slightly ahead of expectations, with a normalized quarter. MiuMiu brand grew 48%, offsetting slower core brand expansion. Management highlighted solid momentum extending from October sales, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP+4-6%) and strong full-price sales.
Earnings Forecast: Financial outlook remains stable, with revenue projections unchanged from prior guidance. Metrics like gross margin, operating margin, and net margin are on an upward trajectory, supporting the BUY recommendation.

Japan delivered the highest year-over-year growth (26%), fueled by Chinese tourists and local demand. China's subtourism segment saw substantial growth, but its impact is limited due to size. The US market declined 8% YoY, while the Middle East faces uncertainty from geopolitical tensions in Q4.

Prada's core brand is stabilizing, while MiuMiu is on a stronger growth trajectory, narrowing profitability gaps with Prada. Both brands implemented 4-6% price increases in 2023, with similar hikes planned for 2024 to drive sales above market averages.

Revenue growth in royalties and cross-brand collaborations is underway, but Prada has no plans to expand licensing to other categories. A key milestone is the introduction of human-made fine jewelry, expanding into the luxury fine jewelry market.

Recommendation: BUY with a DCF-based target price implying a valuation that benchmarks to global luxury peers. Uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and regional risks are noted, but management's focus on brand investment and pricing strategies supports positive financial upside over the longer term.

Note: The analysis is based on reported data and forward-looking estimates, subject to market risks and potential changes in external factors.

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