UBS_Equities-US_Equity_Strategy_1Q25_Earnings_Season_Preview_Simonds-114627471_19页_1mb

报告摘要

S&P 500 Q1 2025 EPS growth is initially forecasted at 3.8%, but historical trends suggest it could finish at a higher 7.4% year-over-year, driven by adjustments from overly optimistic first-quarter expectations and positive fourth-quarter results.
Earnings revisions are expected to follow a standard pattern, starting high and moderating toward reporting season, with full-year 2025 revisions less negative than typical historical averages due to the strong performance of the TECH+ sector.
The TECH+ sector continues to be the fastest-growing group, with EPS expected to rise 16.4%, led by companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, while EPS for non-Tech companies are forecasted to decline by 1.6%.
In contrast, the Energy sector is projected to contract by 15.7% in Q1, marking a significant drag on overall market performance, with a projected 0.4% growth for the full year 2025.

Q1 earnings surprises are moderate, with early reporters exceeding expectations by 4.8%, slightly below the historical average, indicating that while initial estimates are often too optimistic, adjustments keep the market competitive.
Sector-wise, Non-Cyclicals are expected to outperform Cyclicals (excluding Energy) in EPS growth, supported by revenue gains, offsetting margin pressures in cyclicals.
For the full year 2025, EPS revisions show a slight upward trend, influenced by the resilience of TECH+, with minimal drag from other sectors, although volatility from materials and discretionary stocks remains a factor.

Growth outcomes are subject to change based on market conditions, including interest rates and sector-specific events. The US equity market views earnings, rates, and other variables as key drivers, with no guarantee of performance.
Historical data indicates that revenue and EPS growth can vary significantly, with past performance not being a reliable indicator of future results, and investments carry inherent risks including potential losses.

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