UBS_Equities-US_Equity_Strategy_4Q24_Earnings_Brief_January_30_Golub-113173148_18页_1mb

报告摘要

Key Brev： Yesterday, META and MSFT reported mixed results; META+ beat analyst forecasts handily with price and earnings surprise, while MSFT's beat was overshadowed by data center capacity concerns. Forward EPS guidance for both companies was below expectations.
Market Overview： The 6 largest TECH+ companies are expected to outgrow overall revenue growth, with group EPS growth projected at 22.8%, higher than the S&P 500 average of 5.2%.
Sectoral Growth： Financials have an outsized impact on S&P 500 EPS growth this quarter, projected to contribute 3.3%, far above typical levels, due to easy comps at large banks. EPS growth expectations are +6.8% on aggregate, with a projected finish of ~10.8%.
Historical Context： S&P 500 EPS growth has averaged 5.1% YoY over recent years, while TECH+ shows strong forward momentum but Energy is expected to drag.
Key Events： Over the next five trading days, 29.8% of S&P 500 market cap companies will report, including Apple and others. No major surprises expected, but revisions underline TECH+ resilience.
Notable Caveats： All figures blend actual and expected data, with EPS modeling sensitive to company- and sector-level one-time items and methodologies. Valuation has an explicit 12M horizon, based on significant stock-level data and filtered revenue beat/miss*.
*Beat/Miss calculated as +/- 1% for EPS.