UBS_Equities-US_Equity_Strategy_4Q24_Earnings_Brief_January_17_Golub-112907555_18页_1mb

报告摘要

Report Coverage: 89% of S&P 500 market cap has reported Q4 2024 earnings.
Projected EPS Growth: 9.4% overall, but sector-specific growth varies significantly.
Strong Performers:
- Financials expected to grow EPS by 25.7%, aided by easy prior-year comparisons, contributing 3.1% to S&P 500 EPS growth this quarter.
- TECH+ companies (e.g., Microsoft, Apple, Meta) projected to outpace the market with an average EPS growth of 20.4% vs. 5.4% for the rest of the S&P 500.
Drag Factors: Energy sector expected to have negative EPS growth (-31.6% ex-Energy, -1.5% with Energy).

Non-Cyclicals (ex-Energy): Projected 37% EPS growth.
Current Beats: Aggregated EPS beats are 11.1%, indicating higher-than-expected performance.
Revised EPS Growth: Anticipated to reach 12.6% due to historical estimate revisions over the reporting season.

Key Companies: 46 entities representing 7.5% of S&P 500 market cap to report in the next five trading days, including Netflix, United Airlines, 3M, General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, Abbott Labs, and Procter & Gamble.

Earnings Surprises: Past S&P 500 earnings surprises averaged +0.57% and -0.79%, with revenue surprises averaging +0.31% and -0.56%.
Revenue & EPS Growth: Historical revenue growth has ranged from 5.3% to 5.7%, while EPS growth has varied between -6.0% and 12.6%, influenced by economic cycles and sector performance.

Market Influences: Equity returns driven by corporate earnings, interest rates, risk premia, and business cycle factors.
Conflicts of Interest: UBS may act as principal or hold positions in securities discussed, potentially impacting objectivity.
Limitations: Past performance does not guarantee future results; estimates are based on current data and may be revised.

Adjustments: One-time items may distort EPS growth; adjustments exclude such distortions where significant.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and not intended as investment advice. UBS recommends reviewing disclosures and historical data for detailed assessments.

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